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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. In the end, it will be the NAM that caves, and it won't just be a tick here or there.
  2. Just about all of the mesos still have you with a 6-8" thump before the sleet.
  3. We'll see what the Ukie and Euro show, but at this point one can't expect to see other than noise from this point forward, as the GFS just showed.
  4. Looks like the mesos are not in the NAM camp. That includes the HRRR, ARW, NSSL and the FV3 - all of them. And the RAP is with them as well.
  5. Realistically, how much is going to change in a system like this in the next 24 hours? Your weighting right now looks good and is unlikely to change beyond some noise.
  6. Is this going to be one of those extremely rare instances that the Nam is right? I don't think so. I have yet to see other guidance moving north towards the Nam. It's getting late in the game now for that, as we are only about 30 hrs from start time.
  7. Very much like the 21z RAP, with the sleet line barely getting here and into BOS. Looks like the mesos as well as the big boys are in agreement here, all except for the Nam.
  8. 21z RAP looks nice for EMA. Sleet line barely gets to me for an hour or so, and never makes it to BOS.
  9. I'm always skeptical of snow map amounts that follow the state borders, as in MA/NH, lol.
  10. Nam on this run at 18z Friday went from 3C at h850 on 12z run to 0C, yet it made no difference in total snow amount. Tossed.
  11. I learned that lesson well in the '78 blizzard by doing just that, only it was a few extra hours, not minutes.
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