78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Even though the qpf was less this run on the NAM, thanks to the colder run the end result of the total snow is still the same in many areas as at 18z. Thanks, Kuchie... That would be about 7" here. -
NAM is coming in colder this run.
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If NAM/GFS runs are "crazy" at this late stage, then what good are they?
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The NAM has gone in the opposite direction of the Euro over its last 4 runs after being strung out at 0z. I know, it's the NAM...
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The 18z GFS is on crack. Looks nothing like the 12z Euro.
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Great, January is not even half over yet and we have a new thread to begin our meltdowns.
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Lock it up!
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Euro says hold on with that extreme cold all next week. It may be fleeting.
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I'm ready for the extreme cold for the following week, with highs in the low to mid teens and lows near or below zero for the whole week. Cold and dry. You just know we'll follow that with a big warmup and rain, with the ensuing meltdowns.
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That storm the GFS had at 12z for day 10 going ots doesn't even exist on this run.
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Finally hit double digits for the season here with the 2" thus far. Picked up really good here over the last hour+.
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At least we have both the GFS and the Euro agreeing on a storm on day 10, but the h5 differences show a whiff for the GFS and a hit for the Euro. Even CMC agrees on a storm on day 10. This may be a first this winter with all 3 showing a storm off the SE coast at day 10. The Euro has that 2nd wave enhancing things while the GFS sends it ots. Again, those h5 differences come into play. At least we have something to track.
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Perhaps we will even bust a bit higher. At least in metro west this may be the season that we see our totals increasing from busts of smaller systems rather than from blockbusters. Hopefully we get that 2-3" to bring the season total to double digits here.
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3k NAM more bullish this run with 2-3" here. Later start and end, too. With temps in the 20's and frozen ground, this should accumulate.
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Here is Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which can make more than 1.1 billion billion computations per second. I wonder if NOAA can utilize this?
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All of whatever falls is coming from the northern stream, not the southern one.
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If we go back before New Years Day, all the model ensembles said the same thing. Cold and dry for the next 2 weeks. They were right. For this specific so-called threat, the one model that never strayed from that cold and dry scenario for even one run was the UK.
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Just a couple of days ago the TV mets were uncertain.
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With all the uncertainty on this, I still don't know why NOAA didn't schedule some recon flights in the Pac region. Unless they don't think this one was worth it.
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It's to the point now that we are hoping for a little moisture enhancement from the northern stream moving over the unfrozen Great Lakes making its way this far to give us a couple of inches.
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I thought we were told yesterday that it was all or nothing? That seems to have changed a bit.
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That stream was definitely digging more this time, but no real change in the solution.
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Not much different than 12z. But with 4 days to go, we aren't going to see these 2 runs as the final solution, that's for sure.
