78Blizzard

I know the feeling. I started mine up on Tuesday to make sure it was ready for the season, and in the back of my mind was wondering if I jinxed it.

It seems to almost always fail when we start a thread at 8 days out. I remember when James did it and people lambasted him for that.

In the case of today's system, the GFS was the outlier ots and finally caved to the others on d6. So if it follows the same pattern, we should expect it to cave soon.

Thanks for the input. I agree with you. So basically all these vendor snow maps are all somewhat useless not knowing their coding.

Wrong. You're misinterpreting what I said. Using your example in what I said, the GEFS mean would have shown an slp that would have indicated by its lower and upper level metrics clearly a rain situation, and the mean snow would be zero. As I said, it should all be based on what emanates from the placement of the mean slp.

I don't get that. If the temps and qpf are means of all members, then so is the snow a mean of all members. If the mean temps for an area are low to mid 20's, and upper level means are well below freezing for the same area, shouldn't the mean snow for that area correspond with those indicators? Otherwise, it would appear that the cutting members are skewing the snow totals. The placement of the low on the GEFS is also a mean, and the resulting metrics should be based on that. I think the problem with most of the ensemble models is that they take a mean of the snow totals of all members (including the cutters showing little or zero) and plug that into their maps, when in reality the maps should be reflecting the snow resulting from the placing of the mean slp and resultant lower and upper level means. The storm vista maps appear to take the latter approach with the GEFS.

We've seen a lot of both of those scenarios in the last few years, but if push comes to shove I'll go with the chasing convection east.

Those Weather Bell maps are underdone. If you compute the total GEFS qpf for the storm it becomes obvious, especially in areas that stay in the 20's throughout the storm. That area NW of Worcester to S NH shows 6.6-6.7 in their snow map, yet total qpf shows an average around 1.25". Temps there are in the low to mid 20's, and the upper levels are all quite cold. I used the Pivotal maps for the qpf and temps, but their maps have the snowfall totals underdone as well on the GEFS.

Those two members out near Bermuda are keeping this mean over the benchmark instead of a hugger at best.

If that's all we end up with, I'll take it at this point vs the previous alternative.

You could see big changes at h5 from 12z. The earlier run had a ridge running from the central plains all the way up into southern Canada. Not there this time.

Seems like big changes thus far at h5 on the GFS from 12z.

It all depends on how you define "big events". For SNE rainers they apply frequently.

Calm down. Just trying to spread a little levity here...

We won't hold you to it.

The way I see it is that winters are reverting back to the mean where NNE is going to be making up for those great years for SNE. Not that SNE will be shut out, but NNE will do better as climo says they should.

Again, if the GFS is right, RIC will be sucking exhaust, too. You might have to hope for a HSE jack.

Even the Mid Atlantic won't take advantage of our misses if the GFS is right.

Yeah, 4 storms after this weekend's system suppressed to our south. You know that will verify.

So in this era of supposed global warming - we now have "Atmospheric River Events". We used to call them … wait for it … storms. We get all this breathless reporting as if we never had weather before. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11525523/Atmospheric-river-event-crashes-California-West-coast-millions-brace-storms.html I guess the media needs something new to replace the scary "polar vortex".

All the colder air lifts out after Wednesday, and a sheared out system isn't going to bring it back.

Last night it was a GFS OP run 8 days away, yet that's different. A week ago people were railing against the posting of an 8 day op that didn't fit the pattern narrative here. Can't have it both ways.

As Tip said earlier, "should this freak pattern look go on to verify, there will be no question as to which model was superior in detection."

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm. You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run. What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run. This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.