78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!
78Blizzard replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
The Euro op is all alone among the ops with that widespread below 0F in SNE, even down on the Cape and MV. An interesting battle among the models. Let's see which one(s) cave(s) from here. -
The event of the season - 2 days of hell!
78Blizzard replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
0z GFS already backing away from the cold. BOS and many areas stay above 0F. -
Somehow I don't see that transitioning to what Will showed the following week in the Ensemble mean. I think the models have been spitting out a lot of conflicting garbage lately.
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That statement would have applied a month ago, too, just substituting January for February, after a crummy December. We all know now how January has worked out. Two months doesn't make a winter, but it's a pretty good indication of where we're going for the remainder. Trends are hard to reverse, especially ones of this length.
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I think the models are broken...
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LOL. I'm betting on the 3/25 to 4/4 period.
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According to the Euro over the next 10 days we can look forward to a parade of "potential" heading straight east well to our south as fish storms.
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Someone coming to this site for the first time and paging through this thread must be thinking "what a bunch of whiners".
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With the GFS showing Montreal hitting an all-time low of -40F next Friday, it's no surprise we will be less active with that cold pushing down, even if it turns out to be fleeting. Montreal's all-time low is -29F.
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The models are laughing at us all...
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Let's be real here. The 18z GFS, too, shows yes, a couple of days of BN 2m temp anomalies, but then goes right back to well AN anomalies for rest of the run. Those subzero temp runs of a few days ago are but a fantasy now.
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I'm at the point I don't want to look at any models. If by some miracle we get something worthwhile, I'll enjoy it when and while it happens.
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Do you want to go back and look at all the snow maps posted from the Euro and the EPS?
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My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day. The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out. We've seen that countless times this winter. Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE.
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The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE. A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow. Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps. Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours. It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now.
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I'm going with a NAM/RAP combo for 4-5" here.
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At least we finally might get some real systems to track instead of these teasers. That Koochie with 41" here would take care of the snow drought, but I've seen this movie too many times to get all excited at this point. We've seen the GFS track record of 9+day scenarios.
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I wasn't talking about your backyard in CNE.
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When the track goes west of the benchmark, it usually isn't good for much of SNE without decent cold locked in at all levels.
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We started the January thread on December 18. Perhaps its time we started the February thread and we can put these conversations where they belong.
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I doubt this will happen here in the next 2 hours as depicted by the 0z GFS.
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Just a few hours ago the CMC snow maps were subject to ridicule. But now that the Euro shows it, too, we can't post enough snow maps. I'm with Jerry. It's a 9-day run. Let's see how it looks again in 3 days.
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Ukie a bit more robust and extended further west.
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Looks like the GFS may finally be getting a clue, now that we are in its 24-36 hr wheelhouse, lol.
