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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. 78Blizzard
    Hrrr not a good sign for the 0z suite.
  2. 78Blizzard
    The problem for the GFS is that it can only be downhill for it after that last run. It won't get any better than that for many. It has been steadfast for 3 days now, so I think changes should be mostly noise this close in. I have railed on it this winter for showing us favorable outcomes at day 6 that disappeared by go time. But if it does it now at day 1-2, then what good is it?
  3. 78Blizzard
    Plenty of bust potential in that BOX map. Just let the NAM's next run trend toward the GFS and they'll be scrambling to update.
  4. 78Blizzard
    Yeah, just about 2" here, with the sleet line barely getting to me and then collapsing into heavy snow.
  5. 78Blizzard
    Basically, they are saying FU to the GFS.
  6. 78Blizzard
    Well, we have a stubborn NAM and a stubborn GFS. At this point I don't see either/both of them compromising. The GFS has been consistent every run for days, so I am inclined to go with it. I see BOX isn't putting up any warnings yet, so they can't be buying the GFS or even much of the other guidance.
  7. 78Blizzard
    NAM @ hr 30 looks colder this run.
  8. 78Blizzard
    Imagine what this place will look like during the next 4 or 5 model runs as we put every tick north or south under the microscope?
  9. 78Blizzard
    Is that the same Canadian that just yesterday had over 20" in many areas of SNE, including my backyard?
  10. 78Blizzard
    The 3k NAM looks much better than it did at 18z, but I'm not biting after that 10" it showed here on the last system.
  11. 78Blizzard
    Obviously they have either ignored the GFS or are saying it's wrong in the making of that map. Otherwise, they wouldn't have a 0-10% chance for much of SNE. Even a 20% weighting for it would yield a greater percentage.
  12. 78Blizzard
    I knew when I moved the snowblower into position in the garage last night what the end result would be here today.
  13. 78Blizzard
    I'll bet the Euro caves to the 12z CMC at 0z...
  14. 78Blizzard
    GFS coming in warmer @ hr 108.
  15. 78Blizzard
    3k NAM bullish for E areas.
  16. 78Blizzard
    Looks to start around noon Friday and end Saturday morning.
  17. 78Blizzard
    Congrats NYC on the Euro. They will finally end their snow drought.
  18. 78Blizzard
    You don't start a day 6 thread with this kind of statement: "...it is likely we are looking at a New England blizzard, with the potential to become a historic blizzard (top 10 all time) in the Boston area."
  19. 78Blizzard
    My bad for bringing up the follow-up system next weekend.
  20. 78Blizzard
    As we like to say, the trend is your friend, except when it's not.
  21. 78Blizzard
    The weaker system is probably going to bring rain to many now on that next system next weekend.
  22. 78Blizzard
    RGEM still weak sauce.
  23. 78Blizzard
    It didn't look good at 18z either.
  24. 78Blizzard
    Both the NAM and the RGEM look like weak sauce, especially since the coastal low is projected to move due east.
  25. 78Blizzard
    This is what I responded to, not your editorializing now: "The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila."
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