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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. 78Blizzard
    NAM looked warmer earlier in the run, but later it now seems a bit colder at 925.
  2. 78Blizzard
    NAM looks warmer than 12z.
  3. 78Blizzard
    If we are still going with ensembles at this late stage, then the EPS is colder aloft than the op. 850s below 0°C everywhere on the EPS except for a brief period on the outer cape. I expect that the 925s are similar compared to the op.
  4. 78Blizzard
    The Euro had the same QPF here as the GFS, 2.7". The difference is that the GFS kept much of ENE below 0°C at 925, while the Euro did not for much of the time.
  5. 78Blizzard
    Even has 850 0°C line well into CT, RI and se MA.
  6. 78Blizzard
    One of the models was showing that last night, too, although further north.
  7. 78Blizzard
    Agreed.
  8. 78Blizzard
    It may be time to move on from the ensembles now.
  9. 78Blizzard
    The 12z GFS has 925s below 0°C for us throughout the precip, which is why it shows 2.7" in QPF and 27" of snow here.
  10. 78Blizzard
    TWC seems to be ignoring the GFS and Euro, calling for widespread 3-5" east of 495 and 1-3" SE MA, and they are using a benchmark track. They claim surface temps will be too warm for coastal areas. But they leave open the track could change. They say we could get more if the track is further out. Just saying. I'm not buying it. The GFS and Euro have been trending colder.
  11. 78Blizzard
    You could see early on that the northern stream was held back on this run, which is what we wanted.
  12. 78Blizzard
    It's just one run lol. You will probably jack before it's all over.
  13. 78Blizzard
    GFS and UK tracks were quite similar stalling out on the MA/RI southern border, but the results were quite different, especially in eastern areas..
  14. 78Blizzard
    The UK may soon give us a clue as to the Euro.
  15. 78Blizzard
    968 off ACK
  16. 78Blizzard
    Those colder temps at the surface and aloft well in advance of the storm helped us here in eastern sections.
  17. 78Blizzard
    I noticed that as well.
  18. 78Blizzard
    GFS looks colder this run pre-event.
  19. 78Blizzard
    With SST's 41-42°F off BOS, it's going to be hard to get snow with strong ENE winds with the NAM showing the low on the coast of NJ. Not buying a 2m temp of 33°F here at hr 84, no matter the strength of the precip.
  20. 78Blizzard
    Ok, sorry I missed that.
  21. 78Blizzard
    That map seems to be in conflict with this one:
  22. 78Blizzard
    Yeah, the 850 0°C line went from about Plymouth-New Haven at 12z to clearing all of the south coast, including the cape. I'm sure the 925 line did something similar.
  23. 78Blizzard
    That WeatherBell depiction looks quite a bit different from the map posted a bit earlier, especially in much of CT, RI, and EMA.
  24. 78Blizzard
    Not familiar with it...
  25. 78Blizzard
    That Para might make quite a few more peeps happy in E areas if that solution prevailed.
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