78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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As far as the "big boy" is concerned, let the hype begin: -
That "09" east of GA is the Euro op, lol.
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1/9-1/10 Now Morphing to Less-Than-Exciting Power Cutter
78Blizzard replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
For those who had rain before the snow in the last storm, I would check out those downspouts for ice blockages, especially downspouts with extensions away from the house. I took out slabs that were blocking the ends of the downspouts today, some which were over a foot long. That ice is not going to melt very quickly once the rain begins. It wasn't melting much at all today. -
Snow picking up more now, an inch on the ground.
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Been snowing here for a good half hour or so now. Temp has dropped a degree to 33°F. Grass covered and starting to stick to streets and driveways. Elevation here is about 140 feet.
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He may be transitioning to sleet as the Hrrr at 0z shows him in sleet. If not, then the cold air is hanging in there.
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Where in Jersey are you?
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Checking NYC snow totals should tell us all we need to know here, at least based on that Euro scenario. If they end up receiving several inches or more, then we should do better than what the Euro is showing.
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Even the mean is nothing to sneeze at: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean§or=ne
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Mine is gassed up, tested, and ready to roll. However, that may be the jinx.
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The Ukie appears to be the warm outlier as of now.
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Start taken' 'em up...
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Ukie was improved for coastal and SEMA areas from 12z.
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No, I think you have to go back a bit further than that. The last couple of years have been crap here.
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Yes, it is a win, but just saying...
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I just hate to be in or near the bullseye in many of these models with 2.5 days to go. It usually doesn't work out.
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Reggie weaker this run.
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The earlier GFS runs had 925 temps collapsing after 9z, despite what the NAM was showing then.
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Much colder at the surface.
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TV mets say rain and up to 4" inside 95, yet Euro (and GFS) says those areas get the heaviest snow, clown map or not. Other clowns say the same. The same clown maps have no problem showing rain for the CMC, NAM and even the Ukie.
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I think they are letting those 45° SSTs get to them. Using the Euro and GFS, I don't see anything supporting rain beyond 3-4 miles of the coast.
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925 temps crash lower after 09z when the good stuff gets going. -2C° at 9z here and heading lower from there.
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The RGEM track was almost a carbon copy of 12z's run. Seems to have locked in on that, at least until we get to 0z, lol.
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Looks like it may be a bit colder this run.
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That's about what I was thinking, too. I have seen various model runs over the past couple of days enhancing the snow in this general area. We'll see.
