78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Yeah, this is one time that an 11-day depiction by both the GFS and the Euro will actually come to pass.
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Even a compromise between the GFS and the Euro would be a whiff. The Euro has it going even south of Bermuda.
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Well, looks like some of those clock punchers might have to learn to code: "Around 600 workers laid off by NOAA, including workers from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center - NBC" https://x.com/BNONews/status/1895252448551543275
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Meteorological winter may be over March 1, but if the 18z GFS is right, the first 11 days of March are going to end up 9-10ºF BN.
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Feb SSTs in Boston are at the lowest at this time since Feb 2015, so if we get some marginal situations in March we could do ok.
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The 18z NAM still leaves a little hope. Much deeper system and much further nw than 12z GFS. Also, not chasing convection like GFS since it shows a consolidated system. Even if it heads eastward at some point, it should come further north before that happens. Hope is still alive.
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Those holding out hope with the Ukie just saw those hopes dashed. There is little question that modeling 5 days out this winter has been atrocious. Hundreds of miles of movement from run to run in many cases. Anyone disputing that hasn't been paying attention.
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I said some, not you specifically.
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I like how some are hanging their hopes on the Ukie, where a month or so ago many couldn't find enough words to trash that model. It's all about which model produces the best outcome or the most snow.
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More favorable trends tonight on the Euro for Sunday and day 10.
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Both the Euro and the GFS 12z runs paint a cold 2 weeks ahead, well below normal, sun angle or not.
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If dews are in the 50's, doesn't it follow that the temps are also?
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Euro op is all alone with temps in the 50's in SNE. None of the other ops or ensembles are even close to that.
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18z GFS showed the PV further west than at 12z, so obviously it moved closer to the Euro.
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The EPS looks even worse than the op. That PV seems to be retrograding.
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It's the Euro vs the world once again on the op.
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The Euro is all alone in that day 12 depiction of the deep trough in the east with a big warmup here. None of the ensembles show that, and neither does the Euro-AI.
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So would I. Another 5" would get me to 19" for the season, halfway there with Feb still ahead of us.
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18z GFS doubled down on Wed with enhanced qpf throughout. Time for the others to catch up. Although we are closer in on this, if I remember correctly, the last storm the GFS led the way, albeit too bullish, while the EURO was ots until it finally got a clue.
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That has been debunked. A Democrat Senator made a fool of himself today at a Cabinet nomination hearing spewing that nonsense. I guess some people haven't learned anything from this last election. End of political screed...
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Well, just 10 years ago we had a winter that at least some of us New Englanders loved. It's all in the timing...
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Got down to 0F here last night. Tonight the Euro has it -2F, while the always warmer GFS has it at 8F. I'll go with the Euro. The ridiculous UK has it at 14F.
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Lots of nice chances on the GFS for the next 2 weeks. No real warmups during the period. Will struggle to even reach 40F.
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The Euro is determined to go out the way it came in - meh. Big cutback in qpf from 12z.
