78Blizzard

18z NAM collapses the cold air south and enhances the qpf so that we could get 2-3 inches on and after midnight in this area.

Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro.

If this is any sign of how models are going to interpret future winter storms, it's going to be a long winter with much bridge jumping.

If the Euro is right, it looks like 50-75 miles south.

Again, this model shows 3º C vs -1º C on the Euro at 850 @ 0z Wed for this area. Would you go with an experimental model or the Euro at this point if you had to make a forecast?

This model war will be won or lost at the 925 level. At 0z Wed, the NAM has 4º C in this area vs -1º C for the Euro.

Looked more than a touch.

Euro AI not caving.

If the Euro caves at this time level, I would say it's not useful either.

Well, this storm will give us a heads up on which model(s) to give a modicum of trust, if any, as we go into the winter season.

I probably just jinxed the storm - just finished putting snow stakes along the front lawn near the street and test fired up the snow thrower.

LOL @ these temp maps. Tells you all you need to know - inland runner vs ots:

It still looks like the Euro vs the rest of the models. The Euro has never shown a hugger or an inland depiction as opposed to the GFS and Canadian. We'll see. The Euro may be about to become as useless as the NAM at these time periods.

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction. When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative.

Despite this warmup of the last couple of days, the cold November has given us now the coldest SSTs for Boston in the past 7 years, which in a marginal situation could be a deciding factor whether we rain or snow in this area.