78Blizzard

Euro, GFS, and CMC, including their ensembles all have the system near or east of the mid-Atlantic region, so it won't take too much more positive change to bring them further north. The UK still wants to go to Bermuda, so that one will need a massive change in its modeling to become favorable for us.

Maybe this is the winter of busts. We had our own nice bust here just before Christmas.

Confidence is not inspiring with the 12z suite with the GFS/GEFS all alone.

Looked to me like the Euro op is about 6 hrs faster than at 0z. With the improvement in the northern stream, if it can slow down we can pull it further north.

8 of those 20 members are nice hits. A marked improvement from earlier runs.

It's amazing how that N stream changed so much in one run. It virtually almost disappeared from 12z.

Pivotal seems to have started up again. Now at hr 30.

Same on Pivotal.

Good memory there. Maybe that "78" will bring us a blast like that from the past.

Thanks. How did you know that?

This was my original point: "If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot." CMC finally got a clue at 0z.

Quite the contrary. If you look at the CMC 12z run there was nothing there. At least they have an actual storm there now. So my confidence has actually improved, which was my original point earlier.

This reminds me somewhat of the Blizzard of 1978 which might not have happened without the phase of systems. And we didn't know whether they would phase almost up until go time. But there was a lot less technology available back then to determine that. The models were rudimentary.

Not disagreeing with those details. It's just that i can't buy the general statement of "random luck".

Other guidance showing it to increase confidence was my only point. I'm not singing any praises of the CMC or Uncle.