78Blizzard

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country. I put little faith in these predictions. https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

I don't know all the models that go into the NBM, but given the projections from the GFS, Euro, and other standard models which appear to have missed the mark by a substantial amount, perhaps we should start looking at some of these other models, especially for storms like this.

Reports have come in that Providence has received 34 inches. Something doesn't add up here, or you were in a hole.

ARW cut qpf here from 1.99" to 1.27" as of 0z 2/24.

Yeah, they did. And after taking 3 hours to drive home and actually make it, which is normally a half hour ride, I needed the rest. If I didn't take the back roads home instead of my usual ride on route 128, I would have been one of the thousands stranded there. And i got stuck a couple of times and was lucky to make it home. So yeah, I know the outside existed.

I slept soundly during the blizzard of '78. There was no internet to check, and thus no meso models to get updated.

Doesn't that include some from Wed and Fri?

ICON held serve, actually enhanced qpf in some areas.

Still a crushing on the HRRR, but qpf cut back significantly from 12z, which was overdone most likely in SE MA.

SREF is furthest west, GFS and CMC furthest east.

15z SREF held serve at 15z, still a crushing.

SREF held serve at 03z from 21z. Still a crushing.

Even the Euro track is a bit further north at 36 hr and further west at 42 hr than the 12z run. Don't have access to the 18z run. Qpf enhanced from the 12z run.

Just saw a map on TWC, and it looks like they are riding the GFS since that map looked much like the GFS qpf distribution at 0z. Just a day or two ago, one of them said the likelihood of the GFS solution (which was more robust than the Euro at the time) was very slim. You can't make this stuff up.