vortmax

LP more potent meat them though.

Let the 50 mile N creep begin!

You would think accumulation would be a problem for lower elevations, but if the temps get down to 32 and stay there then maybe. I give it 40% based on the dynamic nature of the system.

Always something interesting going on when the AFD ends with "Stay Tuned".

12z GFS trending south FV3 right over WNY: CMC similar to FV3:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A compact system seems set to advance right along the NY/PA border very early in the long term period. The ECMWF and GFS have trended together in a very tight cluster with regard to this solution. This is a cold deviation from previous guidance and suggests a swath of very strongly forced frontogenetical precipitation to the north of the surface low track. Thermal profiles with these solutions suggest rapid cooling during the day Sunday aloft with precipitation transitioning from rain to snow. Given the dynamics and possibility of dynamical cooling, it would seem fairly impressive snowfall could be possible out of this solution. However, given the strong deviation from previous runs of the models and the likelihood of the solutions wobbling in the coming days for this period, the forecast was only trended colder with some possibility of a rain/snow mix introduced over western New York.

Elevation event...

That line looks serious.

Had a dusting of snow this AM...looked kinda like the hail above, but different...lol 5 day LP goes right over WNY on 12z GFS.

What the heck is that? Most accum on 12z is in PA now...

Especially at 180hrs out... and in April. Lol

You can keep it...gonna happen.

Definitely not a fan of cutters...cold air gets scoured out with ease. Zero staying power.

It's already whipped through OSU...heading north.

Snowing in Ontario.

Seems to be coming onshore now...

Some moisture moving in as well:

I don't know, looks like this thing is sinking south still...getting mighty close to the south shore over the past 30 mins. 9:45 vs 10:15ish

Coming down good at OSU... http://www.oswego.edu/webcam/

Exactly what I was asking previously...

Really think this is gonna happen? Pretty high accums...

NYZ004-050330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/ Wayne- Including the city of Newark 227 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne county. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible.

Shows quite a bit along the South Shore...

Maybe we should start a fantasy snowfall league. Wait...