vortmax

Hopefully those lake breezes will help out today.

They were relatively tame near the lake, but looks like a Tornado warning around SYR.

Lol, was just looking at the radar and noticing that!!

Think we got a small hole in the line as it was quite mild with gusts maybe to 40. No hail & rain was just moderate.

Well it's back together now and looking strong! Looks like a bow echo is forming.

You guys must have gotten some by now, right??

We finally had a great 20 minute downpour - probably .4-.6 or so. I could almost see the grass getting green again!

Nice, cool and dry NE wind off the lake. This is summer.

Most local stations around here are low to mid 90s with indices up to 115. Mine is 94 and 80dp - 117hx

All hail to the mighty influence of Lakes Erie and Ontario!

Don't think so...

This is in part due to the EML. Unique situation for us!

I don't think the lakes will win out this time...with DPs in the mid-70s, there's plenty of moisture and much of the instability in above the lake influences. I may be wrong, we'll see! Looking at the cloud tops when it went over Huron/GB, it did weaken a bit, but gathering strength again over the Southern Ontario hot spot.

Looks like the MCS is forming on the northern edge of the EML and LLJ...very cool. Lots of lightning with the storms (started watching with 45/min - only 20 mins later increased to 110+/min) due to the 78+ DPs in the area. Crazy.

Now that's nice.

More about the EML mentioned in KBUF's AFD (below), with case studies from the Eastern US. Could get interesting! https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1 As was previously mentioned, the pattern developing is a textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML plumes) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. One can see the `birth` of the EML by looking at this mornings (12z Tues) classic inverted V soundings from Albuquerque (KABQ) and El Paso (KEPZ). HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of this airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be seen in BUFKIT sounding profiles and plan view H500-700 lapse rate forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection. Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact, a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports.

Anyone ever seen higher than 2.25 PWATs for this area?

KBUF AFD: While the vast majority of this period will be rain free...there will be the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of any convection will come at the hands of a weak boundary that will sag into the region Friday night. Will continue to use chc pops for this particular period... but with ANOTHER potential problem looming over the region. The longwave pattern outlined above is textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML`s) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. Several guidance packages depict 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km in the vcnty of the aforementioned weak frontal boundary...so there will be the risk for strong to severe convection. In fact...in a study done by Ekster and Banacos...it was found that on severe weather days when an EML was present...over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports.

Lollies around the 3 cities...lol

Last night's AFD: Talk about "cold", H850 temperatures with this trough overhead will be in the -1C to -3C range across Western and North Central NY. How will this impact us? Take a look at our high temperature forecast. Highs are only expected in the mid to upper 50s. This put us more in line with what you would expect in April. Pretty impressive for early June but how impressive is this trough? Well, NAEFS mean H850 temperatures of -1C to -3C is roughly 2-3SD below normal for this time of year. Infact, the last time we had this kind of trough dates back to 2007 and 2009.

Erie Lake breeze is doing its job.

Yea, waiting for that Severe T Storm Watch to be extended into WNY.

Agree, I'd be happier if it just snowed instead...only 5 degrees away. So close.

Exactly, the snowbelts are a great way to guarantee a solid winter. Still doesn't get you past the Spring transition, but can take the edge off.

Just a blip...