vortmax
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Everything posted by vortmax
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I drove in an 8"/hr megaband @SUNY Oswego a long time ago. Couldn't even see the hood of my pickup. The wipers couldn't remotely keep up with pushing it away. No wind, huge flakes, lightning, pure awesome.
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And that's only through Tuesday 9AM.
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Yeah, but likely an anafront-type setup with a couple of LP waves moving along it, with the final wave blowing up...That's happened before and dropped 3-9" amounts with each wave. Adds up quickly.
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That type of cold air with the very warm lakes will produce all sorts of interesting stuff. The front itself, LES, and multiple meso lows...
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Guys, guys, there's no reason to fret. There's no reason why we can't get persistent blocking to keep it below average temps both months. And getting some good snowpack to our northwest will help keep those arctic airmasses nice and cold.
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The GEM and ECMWF remain much farther north and partially phased with this southern stream wave, potentially supporting a swath of accumulating snow just south and east of our region, and close enough to raise some concern for our area as well. We will continue to closely monitor model trends for this period.
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but the strongest gusts are still yet to come from early to mid morning from Rochester eastward. Anyone experiencing these?
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The cold front came barreling in here about an hour ago. Almost lost our gazebo...if it hadn't been for me holding onto it. Gusted at least 50mph...maybe more.
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Will be an interesting one...let's see how it goes.
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Does you see an under-performing potential scenario here due to the slightly unusual setup? This is happening overnight as well, so limited diurnal influences..
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Just read the AFD - this seems to be the only risk for Advisory vs Warning gusts: There remains some differences in 00Z guidance in how fast the surface low will consolidate into one center, which has implications on forecast winds aloft from the various model guidance.
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Wonder how we're getting 65mph gusts with this unimpressive LP going almost right over us??
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At least we get to keep the power on!
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High Wind Watches are out...
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Still a HHW event. Most leaves will be gone by then, thankfully.
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Wouldn't we rather have a warm mid-fall time as it will keep those lake temps a bit warmer for when the real cold air comes?
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Teleconnections (click on the pic for the latest one - it's not showing the right one for some reason):
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More of these to come...fun times ahead.
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Hopefully the leaves are off by then if this happens!
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Atmospheric thermodynamics are quite amazing.
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Exactly a 30 degree difference from 24 hours ago in KROC (88/58). Quite the change!
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KROC at 88 now...broken record.
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This is interesting...
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Looks promising.
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Well, the forecast surely looks like a fall pattern has set in. Time to start thinking about this next winter season!
