I drove in an 8"/hr megaband @SUNY Oswego a long time ago. Couldn't even see the hood of my pickup. The wipers couldn't remotely keep up with pushing it away. No wind, huge flakes, lightning, pure awesome.
Yeah, but likely an anafront-type setup with a couple of LP waves moving along it, with the final wave blowing up...That's happened before and dropped 3-9" amounts with each wave. Adds up quickly.
Guys, guys, there's no reason to fret. There's no reason why we can't get persistent blocking to keep it below average temps both months. And getting some good snowpack to our northwest will help keep those arctic airmasses nice and cold.
The GEM and ECMWF remain much farther north and partially phased with this
southern stream wave, potentially supporting a swath of accumulating
snow just south and east of our region, and close enough to raise
some concern for our area as well. We will continue to closely
monitor model trends for this period.
The cold front came barreling in here about an hour ago. Almost lost our gazebo...if it hadn't been for me holding onto it. Gusted at least 50mph...maybe more.
Does you see an under-performing potential scenario here due to the slightly unusual setup? This is happening overnight as well, so limited diurnal influences..
Just read the AFD - this seems to be the only risk for Advisory vs Warning gusts:
There remains some differences in 00Z guidance in
how fast the surface low will consolidate into one center, which has
implications on forecast winds aloft from the various model
guidance.