vortmax
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Everything posted by vortmax
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Mixing here now.
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Seems like the changeover is going to follow that heavy precipitation. Dynamic cooling FTW.
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Tell me about it. At least the heavier precipitation is holding off in Rochester for now
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996 now. Starting the quick deepening.
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How's this compared to models? Faster/slower? If this intensifies quicker than the models maybe we will still see a surprise.
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Toss it.
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Could the NAM pull this off?
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ROC?
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?
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Would like to get OSU's take on this one.
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If that LP spins up below 980 quickly, it'll be big.
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I'm in. I think this is gonna be a surprise.
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Totally remember. Tons of rain, switch to snow, then 24" and a state of emergency in Monroe cty. 18"er 2 days later. Was that an anafront wave?
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BUF is probably happy tomorrow is Saturday...less a public impact with a big bust.
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977mb... Nice
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Rain will change to wet snow late Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night. Light to moderate accumulations are possible, but there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to the timing of the changeover to accumulating snow, and how much snow will accumulate. There is a small chance of heavy snow accumulations if the snow begins to stick earlier in the day.
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Come on Tim, you should be all over this.
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The cold bias in this situation may not be unsubstantiated...especially with much guidance moving in its direction.
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There is still a high degree of model spread concerning snow amounts for Saturday afternoon and night, especially across Western NY. Again, if the more aggressive NAM solution is correct these amounts will be higher. Interesting such short timing. Bust potential - HIGH
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WWAs up for SW NY
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The dynamic cooling portion is what I was thinking as well. That has certainly surprised forecasters in the past. Starting to see some HWOs pop up in WNY ctys. Let's see how BUF's AFD reads.
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Do you think this could cause some surprises in the forecast?
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Now all you need is a surprise snowstorm this weekend!
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Can only hope for a surprise with this one.
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