vortmax
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Everything posted by vortmax
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Hoping the S. Shore can hold the frozen precip.
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Every global model is showing something worthy of headlines. They already mentioned headlines for the Wed-Thu event due to the commute impact Thu AM. 12z is suggesting colder temps...I'd say it's easy.
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Wondering if 12z has enough evidence for a long (Wed PM-Fri PM) WWA from BUF.
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May even squeak out 12:1?
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If the 12z EC stays steady, all of the global models have a good hit for most of us through Sunday!
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Seems the UK has been the most consistent tracking these 2 systems.
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NWS has S Shore hitting 40 on Thu. Hoping this changes.
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We shall see. Here's to hoping.
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81hr NAM. Better chance looking into a crystal ball.
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The wheelhouse of the NAM is really within 48 hrs. Still a day away for the first wave.
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while the ECMWF and Canadian-NH have qpf over most of forecast area, but are either warmer with rain (Canadian-NH) or colder with snow (ECMWF). Rooting for the EC...
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Probably why models are struggling as many storms this year have been quite messy.
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Clearly headline worthy for synoptic.
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I think it's just lack of blocking, lack of really cold air, and the progressive nature.
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Most of WNY lower elevations pretty much rarely keep significant snow on the ground consistently in even a 'normal' winter. The winter 'users' (ski, snowmobiling, snowshoe, etc.) are not typically at lower elevations - unless you have different users defined.
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It's February 3rd. I'm pretty sure winter isn't over...;)
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Wow, so the EC caved to the GFS on this run. Good news for sure at this point.
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The 12z EC will be the most interesting since the NWS is going with that at this time. If we see it move SE, then we'll all be very happy.
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Man, just can't see that strong of a LP forming in this situation. My guess is we'll see 2 weaker waves along the frontal boundary, with the 3rd being the strongest (990ish). Where the boundary sits will be the big question.
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Cutting will require some phasing of vorts early...don't see that happening in this setup.
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Looks perfect to me...
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Highmarket is the big winner again...lol
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Are we really believing in a 979 LP?? Do the ULs support such development of the 2nd (of 3) waves?
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Being on the north side of a good over over-running event is always fun in the winter time.
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Falling Iguana Warning?
