vortmax

Pretty impressive snowfall! Nice.

"Newsom said in the letter that California has had 126 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours – including 44 news community acquired transmission – a total increase of 21 percent. With the case rate doubling every four days in parts of the state, Newsom projected some 25.5 million Californians would eventually contract the virus." What the data isn't saying here is that they're just starting to ramp up testing so there will be a surge of already existing cases. We have to wait until the data stabilizes to get a true curve of new cases. The POTUS briefing mentioned this a couple days ago...specifically told the news outlets to explain this.

We're not in NY and there just isn't a lot to go around. I respect the fact that people don't want to go out to grocery stores every week or 2, but if everyone buys for 2 months out, there will be major shortages for those in need.

Dude, I've got 5 to feed and no chicken...people are hoarding.

How many mouths are you feeding??

Summer temps, humidity, and people generally spending more time outdoors will help keep it at bay, just like the flu and cold viruses. If the US would just end school early this year, that would help tremendously for everything.

They don't actually measure, just take the meso average.

SB Cities The 2019 - 2020 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Rochester 81.0 77.4 73.9 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Syracuse 70.9 100.2 90.1 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Binghamton 59.4 62.7 69.4 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Buffalo 57.5 77.7 102.4 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Albany 42.2 46.0 41.4 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)

Someone under that LO band? Looks like it's starting to crank up. http://www.oswego.edu/webcam/

BLIZZARD WARNINGS posted for the LES counties.

Definitely, we graduated from OSU together in the Met class. Good times in the met labs...

There will be a certain about of dynamic lift helping convert to snow. Do the models account for that?

Yup

He was a snow hound at school too...we were in the same Met grad class...

What's Aaron saying? He still on TV?

Wah? Big swings between low and high amounts. This falls in the middle.

Any reason why we wouldn't see some tea kettle overnight?

I don't remember a year with so many potential strong inland tracks through NY. Pretty amazing and hopefully one them will really crush WNY.

30:1 or greater ratios! The deepest cold air and best moisture helped along by upstream connection to eastern Lake Superior and Lake Huron will advect across Lake Ontario tonight through Thursday morning, when lake induced equilibrium levels rise to 8-10K feet and all the lake convective layer within the DGZ will result in an increased fluff factor as SLRs in stronger snow bands will likely exceed 30:1. Back to Lake Ontario lake effect...boundary layer flow becomes better aligned by later this evening, and moisture will improve again over the lake. As alluded to already, upstream connection is present from the far reaches of the Upper Great Lakes thanks to limited ice this season on Lake Superior. This connection already shows up nicely in satellite imagery. Upstream connecting flow and favorable thermodynamics suggest loosely organized band early this evening should intensify later this evening and certainly overnight, supporting 1-2 inch per hour (perhaps higher) snowfall rates. As it has looked for a while, intensity of the band and snow rates will be capable of supporting warning criteria snowfall. Main uncertainty continues to revolve around if the band can stay in one location long enough as it will oscillate north and south at least a couple times through the night before settling farther south on Thursday morning with arrival of stronger cold front shifting winds to the northwest. Even though there remains uncertainty on the exact amounts (we`ll keep a general range of 6-10 inches for now, though at least locally that may be conservative), there is good agreement from all the high resolution models that one or maybe two stronger bands will impact portions of northern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southern Oswego county later tonight into Thursday morning. When under heart of these stronger bands, the ideal thermodynamic profile shown by forecast soundings of strongest lift occurring in the DGZ will result in snowfall rates likely over 2 inches per hour with associated vsby as low as one-quarter mile. Though there is still uncertainty in how long these bands will become parked over one area, impact from heavy snow and low visibility and fact that these impacts will persist through the Thursday morning commute, including the NY State Thruway and I-81 corridor over Oswego county justified going with lake effect snow warning for all the counties that were previously in the watch. Coordinated this with BGM and ALY. Passage of stronger cold front around daybreak Thursday will move the stronger band more south along more of the Lake Ontario shore. Possible that as the band pushes onshore, a quick burst of snow may extend back westward along the lakeshore even into the Rochester area. Even if that does not occur, should see several inches of snow along the lakeshore into northeast portions of Monroe county near Irondequoit Bay and this will impact the Thursday morning commute, so will go ahead and buffer the warning to the east with an advisory for Monroe county.

Funny to think we were there at the same time...92/93 was my freshman year. I remember one LE storm that winter where we had lightning/thunder and one of the NYC residents on my floor came running to my room thinking the sky was falling - never experienced that before.

As far as accumulations go, for tonight through Thursday expect accumulations of 6-10 inches. The lower end of that range is more likely with greater band movement, while the higher end is possible with less band movement and more residence time in any one location. The greatest snow amounts are expected across southern Oswego, northern Cayuga, and northeast Wayne counties, along a line from Wolcott to Martville to Central Square. Farther west, expect a few inches of accumulation along and north of Route 104 in Orleans and Monroe counties, with up to 4-5 inches locally near and east of Irondequoit Bay.

Oh, was thinking it was during their 100" event.

Was that in 2007?

We got a few big ones in my 4 years there. First (and only) time I ever experienced 8"/hr rates with a massive band in Jan '96. 1' in 1.5hrs. Crazy.

Wow, woke up to about 3" and a WSW. Not a bad morning... I'll take it.