vortmax

Delta, you might get clipped by that new cell. Warning just posted.

Warning with half dollar sized hail. Yikes.

Can you see any sprites above?

I stand corrected...didn't realize the first one was so close to form. Thanks Delta. Some lightning starting to show up to the NW and SW of ROC.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3265077/ Go figure...

Potential MCS, 2 of them apparently. The first is now forming in MN, the second is progged to form in the AM and pass through mid-morning. Buf AFD explains it quite well: There will potentially be two MCS (or remnants of) which will impact the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Convective waves are always challenging to forecast, with forecast confidence increasing once the convection starts to develop. This is happening with the first wave this afternoon, with this wave forecast to move across Western NY tonight between 9 p.m. and 2 a.m. SPC highlights a slight risk of severe weather with this wave, with strong to damaging winds the primary threat and large hail a possibility. Wind shear is forecast to increase, enhanced by winds generated from the MCS which is forecast to develop. Timing is a bit late for severe weather, but Western NY should be in the warm sector by then with SB CAPE increasing to 500 - 1000 J/Kg this evening. Some storms may produce locally heavy rains, but our region will be on the southern flank of the circulation with cellular storms expected to develop rather than a large area of rain. After this moves through there will be a break in the action late tonight, with only scattered showers. However, there is good agreement among mesoscale guidance that a second MCS will move across far Western NY around daybreak Wednesday. Unlike the first wave, our region will be in the northern sector of this wave, which will limit the severe weather potential but increase the risk for heavy rain. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.75 inches, which supports the risk for heavy rain. If this complex materializes, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely. One factor which will help mitigate flood risk is that the system will move through quickly, but depending on the extent of the system it could pose a small risk for flooding. Most likely timing is between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m.

If this mutation is real, I think we all can hope it's happening everywhere...

Good. I'd really like an extended Spring, since Summer tend to come in at full force too quickly.

Not too much of a shadow going on with this wind direction.

On one hand, I like being protected from severe weather by the lakes, but on the other, would like to experience some big ones sometimes.

Some severe weather potential today...thoughts?

Get a reel for it, makes it much easier.

What are anyone's thoughts about some nice warm frontal elevated storms tonight? Usually these have loud thunder due to the acoustics created by the front

Great news: https://www.foxnews.com/science/moderna-positive-phase-i-data-potential-coronavirus-vaccine The Phase I trial of mRNA-1273 saw all patients receive a 25 microgram, 100 microgram or 250 microgram dose. Fifteen patients were in each group and those who participated in the study received two doses of the potential vaccine via an injection in the upper arm, 28 days apart. At day 43, the group that received 25 micrograms, saw the same level of antibodies as people who had recovered from the disease. At day 43, the 100 microgram dose group saw levels of antibodies that "significantly exceeded the levels" seen in those who had recovered from the disease, the company added.

Definitely not as much rain as predicted. Happy about that...and especially happy for this: Hello Spring, nice of you to show up... Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 69. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

However, trend is for farther west track of the upper low and less if any influence from any tropical moisture lifting up the Atlantic Seaboard, so it is looking more possible that without stronger steering mechanism to push the axis of heavier rain into NY, it may stay just west over the Ohio Valley. That is certainly a trend showing up in latest guidance that occurs when looking at the 24 hour QPF Monday night through Tuesday. Should note though the trends are dizzying as for reference point, 00z ECMWF with some support from previous runs plastered western NY with 4-5 inches of run total QPF through Tuesday and now that total with 12z run has dropped to mainly an inch or less, other than along the warm front boundary toward Lake Ontario where it shows some locations may receive toward 2 inches.

Operation Warp Speed. Let's do this... Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said earlier this month that it was "doable if things fall in the right place" to have a vaccine by January.

I, for one, am hoping the track shifts SE...

Squall line seems to always form along and east of the Erie shadow. Dang.

The fact that you think the Democratic party wouldn't do the exact same thing is a pretty good indication that you are making a bad faith, non-objective argument.

Yet with the party swapping that regularly occurs in the exec branch via the democratic vote, it tends to balance out the judiciary. I would argue that the majority of the judiciary branch as a whole, has been appointed by Democrats. This admin is balancing that out. The SCOTUS is the same, for the most part, but has shifted right due to timing of new appointments.

That's the beauty of how our Republic is setup...the executive branch can be as secretive as it wants, yet it's still accountable to the other 2. This POTUS was impeached, there are lawsuits against him, and he has zero authority over the SCOTUS. We the people need to let the process work...is it perfect? No. Does it weed out all corruption? No. Is it the best form of government in this world? I would argue, yes.

I don't support corruption of any kind, political, professional, personal, etc. Let the law of the land expose corruption and apply judgement as the founding fathers intended. You or I don't have the absolute truth, knowledge, or authority. All else is biased opinion.

Breaking into the warm sector quite nicely now...

So this EO is to allow the aforementioned areas to move into Phase 1, I believe.