vortmax

They are waiting.

There are some really smart people on here. Let's do our own model diagnostic discussion. Perfect example too as there seems to be some significant discrepancy very close to the main event. Anyone?

15z SREFs are certainly higher than 9z like someone said.

12z 3k NAM: 18z 3k NAM

18z NAM definitely SE w/snow totals.

How accurate is this IBM model?

Thanks, was just about to look this up...doesn't show the primary moving too far N...

Their high-end amounts are already showing they aren't.

Yet, you might not have to...

I'll take door #22 please.

Looks like an anafront, haven't had a good one of those in awhile. Would be fun on Christmas Eve.

Not that globals are wrong, but shouldn't the meso models hold more water this close?

Wow. Euro LP scoots almost due east. Stays around 998/99mb. The model diagnostic discussion will be an interesting read.

Nice point. Also, we still get decent humidity and temps when the winds do back NE. I think the S Shore will see accumulating snow for significantly longer than inland. Still thinking 6-8 range.

That timing is a big deal. I still think we can eek out 6" from this. We'll see. Syrmax mention this run is the high water mark - I recall the NAM usually being too wet about 24hr out, but not many others. Thoughts?

Juiced up for sure.

I'd bet we'll see a nice strip of 6-8" along the S Shore in this scenario.

Bit of a strange look...

That's quite the difference! Showing their uncertainty.

Looks like BUF is starting to buy-in a little: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 526 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ013-014-020-021-161030- Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 526 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A coastal storm could generate several inches of snow across the Finger Lakes and portions of the Western Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon and night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Just about to say that the northern-end of the precip will def be higher than 10:1. Likely 12:1 synoptic and 14:1+ for LE or so (just like you said). I'll take a 20% bump with additional LE as well! I'm sure Dave and Tim on board as well!

Why am I just noticing the Ferrier SLR on the 3k NAM? Supposed to help correct for sleet, I believe?

Nice. Any northerly component to the wind along the S. Shore for the event?

KROC SREF mean is about 6"...

Don't you mean Birmingham? lol