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vortmax

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Everything posted by vortmax

  1. vortmax
    Kickin' & screamin'...lol
  2. vortmax
    As predicted...click on map below to see updated map for compare. Plus they issued an HWO so far... Gonna see this happen again later this evening! Guaranteed. lol
  3. vortmax
    Definitely.
  4. vortmax
    Watch. BUF will start to up the totals along the S. Shore on their map...and hoist WWAs (at least, as Tim said).
  5. vortmax
    Radar starting to fill in around the BUF donut hole.
  6. vortmax
    I predict you'll be seeing yellow spots along the south shore areas...
  7. vortmax
    Winds are starting to back from SE to E here. I'd expect to see DPs rise quite a bit when that 'marine' air blows in. Get that WHEC 10 app updated Dave, should be able to catch when the lake starts to add to the party...
  8. vortmax
    This is really cool. Thanks for sharing!
  9. vortmax
    Definitely - the models are starting to align their inits with reality (radar trends, upper and mid levels), which seem further west to me. I think the RAP has the best handle on the current initialization. The sooner we can moisten this dry air, the better.
  10. vortmax
    Bank it.
  11. vortmax
    In 4-6 hrs, the EMC RAP shows the 500mb trough tilt negative.
  12. vortmax
    How about the current upper air look (300mb)? Seems to be multiple areas of divergence - pretty far west as well. Also the trough axis - how quickly it goes negative?
  13. vortmax
    2hr pressure falls happening in a few areas. Along the coast, as expected, but also in WNY. Nice troughy-ness into WNY as well. Good sign?
  14. vortmax
    That's a lot of moisture... Agreed. The moisture with this system looks strong and west - to me at least. Nice slug move NE through central TN, KY, and OH...
  15. vortmax
    Definitely upside potential acknowledged by NWS...
  16. vortmax
    Big difference:
  17. vortmax
    All eyes on the primary low. This is where the surprises come from.
  18. vortmax
    I'm still hanging on to 6-8. Think we're gonna be surprised.
  19. vortmax
    Maybe a hunch, but I still think there's gonna be some surprises with this one.
  20. vortmax
    00z models seem to be taking the primary and scooting along the gulf coast, then a quick transfer to the gulf stream and up the coast like a Miller A. We need more of a Miller B.
  21. vortmax
    00z NAM looking SE as well so far thru 24hr
  22. vortmax
    00z HRRR is SE
  23. vortmax
    This is really the key and likely why the different models have different output. The 12z NAM had a stronger primary which provided more lift/precip to the west longer. My rusty thoughts are to keep an eye on the surface maps and that primary low strength. Right now the primary LP over north TX is 1010 and further north than what most models init. Could be a good sign...00z HRRR doesn't seem to init right either.
  24. vortmax
    0z FTW baby!
  25. vortmax
    Coldest period of year as well.
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