vortmax

00z GFS holds steady. SW wind LE drops lots.

Really think this one is gonna be a nail biter. This kind of scenario isn't easy for models to nail down early...timing - wise.

Yes, but at least we had a storm to track that could be fun for Christmas time.

Looks like a PV invasion at the end.

The hope here is everyone gets some synoptic with LE on the back end. Definitely looking better with today's 12z runs. Starting Christmas Eve would be preferential. I'm hoping to see things speed up about 12hrs.

Euro 10:1 by 12z the 27th. Starts on Christmas day...

Euro is still a big hit, but not until that 3rd LP forms. The point is all the globals have powerful LPs running up the front now. That's a step in the right direction.

Euro putting up some big totals, but more of a WNW flow.

Wow, 3rd low (985mb), stronger than the 2nd forms over Scranton @156. Didn't see that coming. And that one starts to retro @162. Nice.

2nd wave is weaker though, but that's secondary at this point.

Euro has the 2nd wave which is good. All the globals have it. Euro doesn't cut.

I'd be more comfortable if the Euro joined in with producing a wave along the front. The upper levels bear watching as they will dictate the longitude of this wave.

Massively anomalous event starting Christmas eve. Man, we better get a white Christmas this year! Not digging the more westward trend.

Canadian showing a big storm running along the cold front as well...more west than the GFS, so it's ugly through Christmas day.

BuffWeather and I told you guys the 2nd half of December was gonna be good! This last storm started it out with a bang.

I just don't see the front stalling when attached to a deepening sub 280 LP...unless a wave develops, of course. Either way, yes, grateful for something significant looking to take shape on Christmas Eve. Could be lots of fun, for a change!!

Definitely. Seems the energy is there for a wave, just a matter of timing. The EC has the primary LP much further south, then slowing move it NE, then retros to Hudson Bay. Either scenario will bring snow to WNY Christmas Eve night to the next several days. EC would bring big lake snows with prolonged SW flow.

Model question. What's the difference between the GFS & ECMWF vs their high-res counterparts on Pivotal?

If we can get that timing right with the wave running up the arctic front, that would be amazing. The fact all the models have a strong front barreling through around the 24-25th is a good thing. Somethin' gonna' happen. Let's see what the 12z Euro has...

Just for fun:

-NAO blocking could definitely help with that...

I disagree. I think the -NAO is more important and what we've been missing in the wintry months for the past couple of years.

Great post on the CPA thread... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54120-central-pa-winter-20202021/?do=findComment&comment=5757372 Not sure about everyone else but what I am seeing on the models recently as we head into prime climo has me stoked for our snow chances from the mid-Atlantic up into the NE. Below is a 5 day mean from the Euro that shows the general pattern we are moving into and which looks to have some staying power. We are seeing a PV setting up over the northern Hudson Bay as well as over the Aleutian Islands. This configuration is forcing the pattern through the mid-latitudes as to we are seeing ridging in the west and troughing in the east. The placement of these features are almost ideal as we see the ridging just west of Idaho and the troughing showing a neutral state through the Mississippi valley.. Around both these features we are also seeing a steady stream of energy rotating around them to either amplify on their own or to phase. Not to be outdone we are seeing the N Atlantic cooperate as we are seeing blocking setting up and maintaining. This is a money look to me. Now some might look at this and go, 'But it doesn't show any signs of a 50/50 low!' and they would be right. But I could almost guarantee that with what we are seeing here we would see lows running through and getting locked in for periods of time in the general 50/50 region with this setup. These lows would come from either the PV, which is well placed over the N Hudson Bay and aligned to send lows into that region or mid-latitude lows as they amplify in the east. As they say in the movie Field of Dreams, 'Build it and they will come', if you build that N-Atlantic blocking the 50/50 lows will come. One thing that is not represented in the below map is what we are seeing with the southern stream. What we are seeing there is very promising as well. We are seeing a continuous bumping up and amplification of that from out of the gulf and up the East Coast throughout the period. This not only provides a possible moisture feed for any developing storms in the mid-latitudes but also puts on the table phasing as well as potential true blue Miller A's. If this is what the base state (after any relaxes) will look like for a majority of the winter I think that many in the East will be happy with the results. Now I do not want to dismiss the coming 10 days as I think there are opportunities showing up and it will be a matter of timing and placement of the energy streaming through the CONUS, but beyond day 10 has my interest somewhat. I am seeing indications of the possibility of a big East coast storm beyond day 10. Though the hints are somewhat subtle on other maps, what we are seeing with the southern jet is somewhat noteworthy. We see shortly after day 10, the southern stream setting up from the south and running up the east coast throughout the extended. Not only that it is a strong signal as well when you consider a couple of things. First off we are talking the extended, so features get muted and washed out as individual members on the ensembles go their own way the further out in time you go. And second we are talking the tropical jet which resides more towards the 300 mb domain then the 200 mb which is represented on this map. So the fact that the 200 mb's is picking up on it fairly strongly is probably suggestive of a very strong jet. So what does this all mean? It means that the jet is honking the possibility of a strong system running through the south and then turning up the coast.

Either 2 things will happen, I think. 1) Even though coronaviruses are RNA viruses, they are the slowest at mutating. This likely means the vaccine will work for years to come and hopfully wipe it out eventually. 2) C19 mutates enough to change the properties of the spike protein rendering the current vaccine ineffective. Developers will create a new vaccine and likely add it to the annual flu vaccines.

BGM got 1/2 their seasonal average in 1 day. Love it.