vortmax

Just a tad.

Yeah, the sensible weather differences 24hrs out are significant.

BUF upped their totals a bit. Maybe after seeing 18z runs... More of a westerly flow for LE...

Disappointed that the 18z Euro went west. Not sure if the off-runs on the Euro are worse? Either way, this one is gonna come down to a nowcast...

Point and Click is depressing...lol - Time to start thinking of the wording BUF! Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then a chance of snow. Low around 29. South wind around 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Christmas Day A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I don't agree. See this: The 06Z and 18Z model runs are just as accurate as the 00Z and 12Z runs. The sondes are a small part of the obs for model initial conditions these days. There are also satellite data and ACARS aircraft data among other data going into the model (VAD winds, NOAA profilers, buoys, ships, GOES cloud winds, GOES cloud-top pressures, GPS precipitable water, radar reflectivity and lightning, the list goes on and on). The model background also carries information from previous obs

Definitely a better look for us.

18z GFS even further East...and 1mb weaker at 06z the 25th.

And it trended a bit East and weaker as well compared to 12z.

Just because they are higher res, doesn't mean they are more accurate - I mean, they are spitting out a lot of mix/ZR and we know that's not likely going to happen. I'd bet they''ll show a more east track 24hrs from the event. From Reddit: The 12km NAM has a resolution of 12km and the 3km NAM has a resolution of 3km. But to give more specifics: The NAM is a specific implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF supports the use of "nesting": You have a larger, "parent" domain run at fairly low resolution, and one or more "nested" domains at higher resolution. The model runs a calculation for one timestep of the parent domain, then those conditions are interpolated down to the nest domains, they run the calculations on the high-resolution nests for a few timesteps, then interpolate that final result back up to the parent domain, calculate a timestep, and so on. The main advantage of running the model this way (instead of just running at 3km resolution across the whole domain) is that we can put a lot more computational power into modeling phenomena over the areas we care about, rather than wasting a compute time by modeling the atmosphere at very high resolution over the open ocean (for example) where we don't care so much about the fine-scale details of the weather. I believe the only difference aside from resolution is that the convective parameterization schemes may be modified or turned off in the 3km dom

Looking at it now. Just looks wonky to me, not believing the 3k has a proper handle of the synoptics. Just my thought.

Also we don't want the low to get too strong as to hold up the cold air. However, I think the biggest potential surprise is that dynamic lifting...really banking on that helping our white Christmas!!

If cold air was already established, yes, but in this situation, we need it a bit more east. Since this is riding up a cold front, it's tendency is to hold the front up a bit on the north side of the LP.

That would be a gut punch. Don't think that's gonna happen for a minute.

No way, this is going to be a heavy rain to heavy snow transition because of the isothermal lift...gonna plaster everything. From the 18z NAM, you'll see the thermal front goes through between 0z and 3z, temps drop from 44 to 35, then 33. I think we'll see the changeover in the mid-30s - leading to a few extra hours of snowfall. I believe the momentum of the cold air forces this even more east.

Through Christmas morning about noontime:

Yup, the 18z now has a 989 LP from BGM to Old Forge...more of a NNE track than due North. Then stalling for 6hrs or so over Northern NY. Then it retros a little and moves NNE. Much more of a westerly and even a WNW flow for LE.

BUF is gonna have to update their AFD with this east trend.

Nah, they are a public-facing gov branch and don't want to rattle the public until they are more sure. Certainly the models have been struggling. Hopefully in their AFD they will offer a more clear position.

Well, their high-end map seems to follow the SREFs...their expected it much less, but if the east trend continues, they will have to go for the high-end map.

About 30-50 miles east.

The important thing here is that all models (except the non-compliant ICON) are trending east.

Lets get the NAM, Euro, and HRRR on board and I'll be happy

Bring it!

Yeah, all we need now is to keep the LP east...say BGM to Old Forge or something...