vortmax

Nah, I think the band is forming more NW...check out his loop and the west-end of the lake. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-24

Nice moisture streaming off Huron - on its way - leading edge in Ontario...

12z GDPS a tick south and 4mb weaker with primary (vs 00z):

A little too early to make this call, I think. Let's see what 12z has to say.

Looks like some heavy stuff move over Roc - some yellows approaching Delta's back yard...

Nice little blurb about LES potential for S Shore: A northwest flow regime continues Friday night. The best activity continues to look to set up off Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance is not in particularly good agreement on where a Georgian Bay connection will set up, but pattern recognition suggests this is most likely across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties initially during the first half of the night, possibly drifting southwest towards Rochester late Friday night. If this upstream connection is able to remain in one place long enough advisory criteria snow amounts are possible southeast of Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday morning. In Rochester the greater snow amounts would likely focus along Route 104 and into the eastern suburbs.

Makes sense.

Good for you. Enjoy the nice weather.

Could this be our first no-frills 'normal' winter storm?

Exactly Dave. From 7" to 2" or less...model hugging.

18z NAM still has nothing for S Shore (<1")...18z RDPS backing off some (~6-7")... yet BUF upped their map:

He's comparing to the same LP of the GFS at the 192 run hour.

12z NAM through 54hr...much different than 12z RDPS:

I'd imagine they should have a swath of 6-8" along N Wayne cty...according to this model. Through 84hr, the RDPS has 11" for this area:

Same thing here...a few more dustings and the grass will be covered. Lol

Dang, the apocalypse. Maybe there's something to this, lol? 1 season's snowfall over 1 week's time? Could be possible in the snowbelts, at least.

I can't imagine this would be different from the flu vaccine?

I find it quite amazing that the models are struggling so much, so close to the event.

Montreal and Ottawa special...

12z Euro is starting to run - let's see how she goes.

If they are then they better start upping their accumulation maps.

GFS through 102...

Still hoping for a bit more from this than forecasted. 1"? Come one. 12z NAM:

Not bad...