Continuity??
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic front slips through Thursday with H850T falling to -18/-20C
over the course of the day. With ongoing CAA and support from a mid-
level shortwave dropping southeast through the NW`erly flow,
scattered lake effect snow showers will then become more numerous
with some accumulating snows Thursday night. Shortwave trough
departs to our southeast and then out to sea on Friday. Subsidence
in its wake and a drier air mass filtering in will then limit lake
effect snows Friday with diminishing returns. Lake snows finally
wrap up Friday night with sfc high pressure build southeast into the
Lower Lakes overnight.
Otherwise, cold both days with highs anticipated in the teens
Thursday areawide. A bit colder Friday with single digits expected
across the North Country, teens elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light lake effect snow will continue Saturday morning with
temperatures at 850 hPa in the negative teens. Northerly flow will
favor areas along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline...with perhaps
a few flurries early southeast of Lake Erie before surface high
pressure and a drier airmass crosses into our region. The light
winds will restrict any accumulations closer to the shorelines.