vortmax

He may only have 0% of his nuts if this Miller A works out.

12Z Canadian has initialized.

As Delta said (along with the BUF disco), the HP placement is good for a rare Apps runner and the Apps aren't too large to mess with the LP, especially a Miller A. Gravity waves with this one?

Anyone notice that the GFS brings the 492dm bubble over us with a NNW cyclonic flow after the clipper? Dang. This could be a VERY snowy (and frigid - old Weather Channel saying) couple of weeks.

The 12Z EC run will be VERY interesting. This is the time when these runs start to really converge and dictate reality.

Still not buying the double-barrel look.

12Z GFS a major hit for just about everyone, again. Wow. Kuchera already about 2' for South Shore before it's over.

The 06Z GFS has that same LP wobble, chasing the convection. With a true Miller A, there shouldn't be any transfers.

12Z GFS through 81hrs pretty similar to 06Z.

Definitely looks like it's experiencing some convective feedback with that low placement, but as the rest said, it all depends on how it handles that northern stream energy about to make its West Coast entrance.

So it looks like the south shore is still in the game for up to 4-6" fluff over the weekend according the the RGEM. That would be a great pre-game warm up.

SYR west we'd like to see a a bit more inland and northerly track for both synoptic and LE on the back end. The phasing will be key to the tilt. When will that northern energy be on land for sampling?

Sitting at 34 right now. Was only 7.5 around 24 hours ago.

These wobbles are expected. Just hoping there aren't any huge shifts.

Central PA thread has lots of interesting analysis posts. Fun reads. This is gonna be a big one.

BUF .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will move off the New England coast Sunday, with a ridge extending back across New York State and New England providing a dry finish to the weekend. Temperatures will be significantly warmer than on Saturday after a cold start Sunday morning, however still some 5-10 degrees below average for mid January. Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. Confidence continues to increase for a Nor`Easter to impact our area from Sunday night into Monday. 12Z ECMWF/GFS/Canadian all have the center of an area of deepening low pressure moving NNE directly over central/eastern NY late Sunday night and Monday. Given the increased confidence, us and surrounding offices have stepped up PoPs into the Lkly range from central and eastern PA up through central and eastern NY during this timeframe. If this system tracks to far inland p-type could become an issue, mainly across eastern areas at this point, however will keep precipitation as all snow for now this far out. Some lake effect and upslope snows will develop Monday night lasting into the day on Tuesday under WNW/NW flow in the wake of the departing storm system. Any lingering lake effect snow showers will weaken and sweep from south to north as winds back to the southwest Tuesday night ahead of a Clipper type system moving into the upper Great Lakes. This will bring the next chance for a light synoptic snow to western and northcentral NY mid week.

This is gonna be more west than that...

Quiet all of a sudden. I think we all overdosed on model pron. lol

Funny thing is, this bullseye is over a foot short of BGM's epic dumping.

Might as well go ultra-weenie.

It would take a very early phase to make this a cutter. I say this stays just to the east of the range. The Europeans heard my plea of uncovered grass.

I'll take the 24" lolly just north of my location. lol.

Model bias.

Dynamic cooling would keep WNY in the snow, my opinion.