vortmax

Does somebody need a hug?

The season of too-far-north Miller Bs.

The system in the Sunday-Monday time frame looks good on the GFS with a short stint of NW LE on the back side. CMC is looking good as well, just a bit slower/suppressed/weaker.

KROC at 37.

Yea, I see NIA is dropping close to freezing again after getting to 37 a couple hours ago. BUF and ROC have dropped a degree or 2 as well. Not sure if it's due to precip or cold air fighting back.

Temps just jumped to 34...looks like a sharp temp drop over N Cayuga cty and east...

Anyone have a pressure tendency map? Would like to see if that coastal is firing up.

Wouldn't it be great to have, just once, a surprise where the cold air hangs strong along the S shore and we get hammered. LOL. I remember a Miller B, a long time ago, where the E/NE winds continued (the front obviously didn't make it as far north as expected). Got walloped. Here's to hoping.

998 mb surface low moving through southwest Ontario Tuesday evening will continue to deepen to about 991 mb as it moves just north of Lake Ontario through Tuesday night. If this happens, we're definitely switching to rain...maybe we'll dry slot in the warm air before the wrap-around.

That's a lot of frozen precip...what's the surface reflection? Has it shifted S?

If the winds turn even the slightest south of east, it will be a rainstorm. Hoping it doesn't.

South shore is a close call. Hoping the primary comes in a little weaker.

Could be ugly.

Never know. It's been pretty consistent with a big hit. Here's to hoping.

This is getting interesting.

Ugh, the UP of Michigan is getting hammered with storm after storm. 3 WSW in 1 week!

Great AFD: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The mid-week mess maker will be moving east of the area by early Thursday, leaving us in the relative foul weather nadir for the week. This occurs as we fully enter the warm sector of a low that will be rapidly spinning up to our west. This means warm advection again holds sway and as 850 mb temperatures approach +10C, even with sub-optimal mixing profiles during the diurnally favorable period, much of the area should again return into the 50s. A fantastically strong cold front looks to follow the warm Thursday across the area Thursday night into early Friday. Fall off of about 25C at 850 mb can be noted across this front between here and lower Michigan as it approaches. This represents a veritable wall of a density discontinuity, and it indicates that forcing for ascent along the front itself should be very impressive. If we combine this with the presence of a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, steep lapse rates above the 0C isotherm, and solidly negative theta-e lapse rates from 850 up toward 500 mb, it would seem a rumble or two of thunder would also be possible along the front. This is unusual for February, but the low CAPE/high shear environment really is not. Further, the deep dive of the dynamic tropopause to below 700 mb on the ECMWF in the wake of the front yields further confidence in impressive lift along the front. Another implication of the suppression of the tropopause and the presence of the 2 PVU surface below 700 mb will be the propensity for solid mixing in the dry slot behind the frontal passage. The NAM and GFS both feature 50-60 kts at 850 immediately post-frontal. Soundings don`t favor the best mixing until daytime Friday in the post-frontal air mass, however, which would already be beyond the time when the best tropopause undulation has moved by. Nevertheless, a period of high winds seems likely overnight Thursday night into Friday. The favored areas on WSW flow east of Lake Erie and Ontario, including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area, would likely see gusts of 50 to 55 mph in this set up even as it stands now. High end advisories from KBUF to KROC look very plausible...with at least a chance for warning criteria winds. Climatologically (rapidly deepening cyclone passing to northwest and strong post frontal subsidence)...this event is looking more and more threatening. Stay tuned.

This could've been a big one. Glad it won't be.

Do I see 2 polar vortices here?

Magic!

Keep an eye out...never know if this is a signal for something big possible over the next 2 week. Imagine is something like that happened closer to the coast! Tough to see 2 cutter potentials in the next week or so.

Folk in Prince Edward Ont. are getting a fairly rare heavy Lake Ontario LE experience. Cool.

Not bad: CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NIAGARA FALLS FAIR 1 -11 57 W28G37 29.97R WCI -24 BUFFALO HVY SNOW -1 -7 75 W17G26 29.96R VSB 1/8 WCI -22 DUNKIRK SNOW -2 -5 87 SW25G32 30.02R VSB 1/4 WCI -27 JAMESTOWN CLOUDY -5 -18 53 SW29G35 29.92R HAZE WCI -32 WELLSVILLE MIX PCPN -6 -19 53 W20G32 29.85R WCI -30 ROCHESTER HVY SNOW 2 -2 83 W31G39 29.95R VSB 1/4 WCI -24 PENN YAN PTSUNNY 3 -13 47 W36G46 29.90R HAZE WCI -23