SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It's not out of the question that things could trend more favorably given blocking in place. We are still 4 days away.
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Probably Christmas week that'll be in the cards. We hit a rare -4 or lower AO which only happens in the snowiest of winters.
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It was always after mid December where the best pattern would begin. Anything before that was a bonus
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GEFS look phenomenal after the Friday storm
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Yeah I thought maybe we'd luck out on the 16th but that primary has always been a stickler and not even a strong block will be enough. Things look great beyond it with plenty of cold air coming down and a favorable blocking pattern. A really good few weeks likely
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I thought maybe the primary would keep trending south but that wasn't the case. So the wait continues.
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That's very possible. The primary was always an issue and the 50/50 ain't great.
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Very unique setup. Can't remember seeing many storms like this.
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The primary being so far north to start is the problem but its been trending south over time. But like you said lots of time for changes. GFS on an island right now.
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Feeling more confident about a miller B transfer off Delmarva. Surface temps a bit iffy for immediate coast but still good.
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The GFS went from a deep trough to ridge in one run. The GFS is garbage
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GFS imo is completely mishandling the ULL in the Atlantic. CMC/Euro have been far more consistent. CMC would be really nice for everyone
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Even regular Nam starting to pick up on the norlun signal
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The Arctic blocking is strong but the NAO isn't and it will be weakening gradually. This is not as extreme as 2010
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I'm pretty confident we'll see a near benchmark track. The only concern is how far north the primary starts off. That's also the reason why I think we can rule out suppression. Also the trend is your friend
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Euro still tucks, GFS shreds so take the middle solution I'm thinking it's gonna be a miller B with secondary off Delmarva. Coastal huggers are very unlikely in a strong blocking pattern.
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If every model showed a bullseye today that would concern people. Frankly I'm glad there's a suppressed solution mixed in with the inland tracks
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So what are your thoughts for the 16th.
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Models are quickly moving in that direction. GFS has even stronger confluence on the 12z run. Pretty soon people will be worried about suppression however neutral to negative PNA argues against that
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You're better off being more SW with Sunday. Now that strong blocking is in place it could continue ticking south as we get closer. Usually the opposite happens but not in this regime.
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GFS ticking south and colder for Sunday. If trends continue we should def get snow to mix in and northern areas may even pick up a light accumulation. With strong blocking more south ticks are possible vs the usual last minute NW ticks
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Which Decembers were able to hit -4 or lower at least one day
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MJO is a non factor right now, probably for the better.
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Plenty of time left for things to change but yes I agree.
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The 16th storm could be it. West based blocking and excellent EPO conditions. A 50/50 type low ahead of it. It'll also follow a noteworthy -4 AO which has historically been a great snow signal for December
