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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Yeah this could quickly spin up. BoC has been an extremely favorable area of development
  2. SnoSki14
    First D2 drought severity for me in several years.
  3. SnoSki14
    There's a good chance this will go down as the hottest summer on record for many stations. The rest of the month looks very warm to hot
  4. SnoSki14
    A hurricane is more likely
  5. SnoSki14
    I don't know if Newark can take the top spot but the second spot is def in the cards. Definitely a lot of near 90 potential rest of the month and September always gives us a few 90s too.
  6. SnoSki14
    East coast is a target with waves coming off further north than usual and the subtropical ridge anchored north of its typical position
  7. SnoSki14
    So how do you explain 2013? Well below average ACE, non-El Nino Following winter was cold & snowy
  8. SnoSki14
    If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while. Reservoir levels still look ok.
  9. SnoSki14
    Ensembles clearly sensing a burst of activity soon and right on cue too. Lid always comes off after the 20th.
  10. SnoSki14
    Very likely we might not see rain for another week or so and more upgrades in drought severity seem likely
  11. SnoSki14
    Very noticeable differences too in the red zone where I live and places down the shore Everything is brown here while there's plenty of green in those areas.
  12. SnoSki14
    So how much longer before the stein meme is no longer funny but a real concern. When fire season hits?
  13. SnoSki14
    The drought pretty much guarantees we'll see many late season 90s. The 95+ stuff might be done but the near 90 heat will stick around for a while. I also see a rapid summer to cold season transition. Very active fire season too if we get into mid September with little rain.
  14. SnoSki14
    It looks like our drought will worsen with very little rain coming and temperatures warming later this week back to near 90.
  15. SnoSki14
    Tropical, no but at the very least it's a hybrid/sub-tropical. Its origins are over the very warm gulf stream.
  16. SnoSki14
    Looks subtropical actually. Need to see other models though.
  17. SnoSki14
    That looks very Nino-ish as does the quiet tropics
  18. SnoSki14
    Looking at OP/Ensembles there are strong indications the season picks up after the 20th. Nice broad Atlantic ridge looks to set up with waves underneath. Shear also dropping in MDR region
  19. SnoSki14
    Not good for continued drought if the GFS is wrong but we do get these excessive dry periods every now & then.
  20. SnoSki14
    I have a feeling this will tuck closer to the coast. If this were winter I'd be worried
  21. SnoSki14
    Half the country is usually still in the 80s going into October However if the GFS is right it would feel more like October Mon-Wed
  22. SnoSki14
    At some point fire issues may be a thing with the continued dry conditions especially if things don't change heading into September/October.
  23. SnoSki14
    Back to just regular heat
  24. SnoSki14
    I mean though a quiet season would be extremely boring, it would be good for everyone dealing with high energy prices & inflation this year. However I'm still waiting for August 20-22th. That's the period when the switch normally happens and you'd be surprised how quickly the tides can turn.
  25. SnoSki14
    The heat wave ended yesterday if we're being honest. 95+ should be the criteria. 90F is basically normal in today's climate.
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