SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I don't think we'll be able to outdo 11/12 for the D-M period. March 2012 was extremely warm and this March doesn't look to follow that path.
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Insanely low level snows possible in California. You know it'll be bad for us when LA can't get out of the 40s for highs in late Feb.
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Really need that to continue otherwise we'll be near normal at best as the coldest air is west. At the very least you can probably eliminate the warm Marches like 2012 & 2020. That block will stick around for a while
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And we're still barely BN if at all At this rate we're going to see our 2nd tornado before we see an inch of snow down in Jersey Slightly below works further north though especially C/NNE
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Can't get an inch of snow but an effin tornado just rolled through NJ in February. WTF
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Only a few more weeks and none of this will matter. The agony is almost over. I think NYC south is done. Even if things improve later in March climo works against them in a big way but SNE will do well as long as the blocking plays out as forecast.
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Cold usually wins out this time of year but the Nam showing the warmth hints that perhaps it'll get north of us.
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December and March are completely different. For one you don't need a +PNA in March
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2nd half of March will deliver in SNE. NAO response + rapidly shortening wavelengths equal snow potential. There's already hints of this in the LR OP runs.
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It is good that the west coast is benefiting from all this, they really needed it. Incredibly drought conditions could be reduced to nil in California when all is said and done which would've been unthinkable a few months ago. The downside is the growing drought in the plains, which is not good given that's our crop growth zone. We need big improvement there
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A couple more ticks north and 70s get into NYC for Thursday. Could be a wild temperature swing
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It's scary how easily we're putting up 60+ temps in February. That's like seeing multiple 90s by mid April.
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Next season
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Where's Brooklyn to tell us how good the GEFS looks
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The only time the RNA won't be as damaging is by 2nd half of March due to wavelengths but by then you're fighting climo big time. Which is why I think it'll just be a chilly March 15 till early/mid April. NAO could stick around for a while so hopes of a warm early spring are very unlikely
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What a fun rollercoaster that would be. 30s on Wednesday to low 70s Thursday and back to the 20s on Friday.
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I think we're too far south to benefit. SNE could do well. Unfortunately I see us getting stuck between the very warm, sunny pattern (60s & 70s) and the cold, wintry one further north. So a lot of dreary 40s & 50s. The GFS has a very early spring backdoor looking pattern for us with a nasty cold tuck. That would only worsen under a -NAO blocking pattern. The 12z GFS is a perfect illustration of what I mean.
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This won't cut it for March
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The "blocking" shown on the EPS for March may only get us to near normal which by March is too warm for snow. I'm 50/50 percent sure we won't get any more snow this season
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Hints of a PV press for the 23rd. Wouldn't be surprised to see that trend south and lead to icy conditions for northern areas
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Except we're still barely BN as cold anomalies remain west. Additionally all it takes is a stronger -PNA to pump the SE ridge and we stay AN. I do think this will lead to a cold 2nd half of March into April as wavelengths shortern but by then it'll likely be too late for anything meaningful
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If the arctic cold pool didn't shrink then this March would play out like 1956.
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Yes things have warmed considerably since then. Looks like an east based -NAO too with a neutral PNA. Still a better analog than 2018 though
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You can already see how that would set up a cold early spring with the shorter wavelengths. Not surprising that CFS shows a cool April.
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Do you have a composite map of March 1956
