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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Ensembles would suggest things correct cooler. They show a pretty solid +PNA/-NAO actually. However it's also too early for us to see a major response unless those signals are extremely strong so that's why we'll likely stay on the hot gradient side of things.
  2. SnoSki14
    It still trended cooler for those days. Never said it was a permanent thing And I've accepted things will always be warm from now on. I just want some storms or something. This whole summer is the equivalent to cold/dry all winter.
  3. SnoSki14
    Dull as dirt pattern continues. It's like Phoenix/Vegas lite except even they've gotten more excitement.
  4. SnoSki14
    You'd think with all that heat things would be more active
  5. SnoSki14
    It really is a wild anomaly. I thought a 0/0/0 in August during a Nina was insane but not anymore. Models continue to back-off on significant development.
  6. SnoSki14
    I don't care if the heat stays, it's the weather boredom that's more irritating. Just absolutely nothing going on. Tropics are dead, rain chances are dead, severe weather is dead, meh all around.
  7. SnoSki14
    It'll correct cooler. +PNA and a trending -NAO
  8. SnoSki14
    I don't think we'll see many 90s after the 31st. I see a lot of big highs coming across to start September.
  9. SnoSki14
    We're also fighting climo. 90s are harder to come by as we enter September.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's interesting how things are playing out like 2013 with the low tropical activity and high retention of Arctic sea ice. If only that could roll over into the winter.
  11. SnoSki14
    Euro & GFS are showing more tropical development in the longer range so this quiet will break eventually. However yes its been unusually quiet and very anti-Nina. I think using base ENSO states to determine what the season will be no longer applies in the AGW era.
  12. SnoSki14
    The seasons of yesterday are no more. It was nice while it lasted. Even the new normals can't keep up. Newark will easily break the 90s August record and annual 90s record. At least 5-6 more 90s this month and then probably a few in September should put them at 50+
  13. SnoSki14
    Pretty lame so far. All the heavy stuff has been just north.
  14. SnoSki14
    Could the volcanic explosion be affecting our climate? This is all very unusual
  15. SnoSki14
    18z GFS illustrates the concern that this year's storms won't develop much until they get west of 60W where it matters for us. We could have 8 major hurricanes but if they all recurve well east of the US then would anyone regard that as an active season outside of the numbers. It's the home brews or delayed developers that matter.
  16. SnoSki14
    Today I really noticed the drought related damage to trees and bushes vs just lawns.
  17. SnoSki14
    There's zero shot of a 0/0/0 August. Models are very bullish on development going forward.
  18. SnoSki14
    Pretty good model agreement on widespread 1"+ amounts Monday. We haven't seen this in months.
  19. SnoSki14
    It really depends on whether or not the drought breaks. If it doesn't then you're probably right. We'll also likely see a quick switch from summery to wintry. An early bout of snow wouldn't shock me either.
  20. SnoSki14
    It's too quiet, it's almost eerie. Expect major cane soon, pattern kinda screaming for it.
  21. SnoSki14
    Trough digging in Midwest would enhance the ridge ahead of it. This would probably go into NC/VA
  22. SnoSki14
    Very easy to do in this SW desert type of climate The low humidity makes it much more tolerable though
  23. SnoSki14

    PTC 4

    SnoSki14 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Lid normally comes off after tomorrow but this year looks slower than recent years so could be a 7-10 day delay before things pop off. I suspect September/October will be quite active as dry air continues to slowly subside. Shear is actually normal to below normal in MDR
  24. SnoSki14
    Newark could easily rack up another 5-6 days of 90s this month and get near or at its all time record. And September always brings 2-4 more 90s so they should top 50 when all is said and done
  25. SnoSki14
    Is this the default from now on or will we ever have something else I'm guessing this is the norm
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