SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Ft. Myers area in danger now for direct hit however biggest danger overall will be the flooding for most of central FL. A stall or very slow movement is likely over Florida which means catastrophic rainfall totals of 20-40" with isolated amounts even higher than that.
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Everyone wants this they just don't wanna admit it.
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Strong blocking high to the north causes slowdown However decades of sea level rises will increase flooding risks
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Track wise maybe but this will be a bigger storm and a slow mover as you stated. Models might have also overcorrected SE
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The east shifts from Ian tonight mean Ian could get a lot further north aka remnant moisture.
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Sometimes IR doesn't tell the story. Clearly the NHC was right on the Cat 2 upgrade per recon Their forecasts have been top notch this year and I have little reason to believe their forecast will be too far from reality.
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Looks like Ian might be more influenced by the trough.
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12z Euro would not be good for Tampa, that would definitely bring the surge in.
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I think the 12z has to confirm the 06z Euro first because it could've been a fluke run.
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A track that far west would mitigate the surge/rain impacts but it also depends on how large the system is.
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Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida. And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida
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If west trend wins expect a weak system at landfall with flooding being the main issue
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Looks like we should get a good batch. Don't know if there's anything severe there though but any rain is good
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I didn't even bother following any "threat" for today. You'll get some showers and that's it
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I expect a major convective burst over center and rapid strengthening soon
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Some remnants could eventually get here
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Ian looks perfect. The environment looks incredible. I expect a hurricane by 11am tomorrow
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If it keeps trending SW however it may avoid the massive dry air entrainment
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Hilarious considering it may not even hit Florida
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Looks like it hit 41F which is a rare sight nowadays in September. I see many 30s readings in more sheltered spots
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The GFS forecast will be about as right as you've been for this season.
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The timing is everything for an east coast special. The storm has to be far enough N&E to feel the trough but not get pushed OTS by it and it can't get trapped by the ridge either.
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The exposed circulation isn't just an Eddy. It's very well defined and my guess is that it eventually goes westward towards the convection.
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Agreed I'll take that Euro in a heartbeat. The weather has been relentlessly boring
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I would be surprised if the Euro doesn't correct west a tad. Think the 18z run overdid the east track and most of the eastward models went back west again.
