SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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There's going to be a monster storm somewhere. You don't often see a low 90s pressure mean on the EPS 9 days out All the ingredients are there for sure. This is aa good as it gets for a major storm signal in March. The biggest downside is climo. We missed out on big totals in 2018 because things didn't get cold enough.
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I do think it's less likely than normal but if we get a big phased storm then it's on the table. This plot gives me some hope though. I haven't seen an MJO 8 this amped in a long time.
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In all honesty that's what's probably gonna happen. We can't have nice things this winter.
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I'm gonna lose it if it's another inland runner
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Starting March 7-8 after that clipper system is when things get interesting. That's also when the MJO gets into phase 8 at a high amplitude, AO tanks and PNA starts rising
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Models going ham with the fantasy storms. How about a blizzard from GA to the Northeast
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Suppression remains my biggest concern. A big sprawling 50/50 could be too much for us if positioned wrong. The somewhat -PNA does help in this regard to an extent It honestly wouldn't surprise me if places in the Mid-Atlantic 2-3x our seasonal totals.
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Likely colder than shown. Looks like DC/Baltimore gets the brunt this time. It's just one solution though GFS hints at that time frame as well
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Big solutions beginning to show up.
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01/02 will still rank #1 This March is on track to be much colder and snowier than that year
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Just give me one coastal storm and none of this cutter/swfe nonsense Would be nice not having to worry about precip type
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If it were any other winter I would take this look to the bank. Best GEFS I've seen yet.
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GFS starting to get a clue with more ridging out west and troughing in the east GEFS follows. Not delayed either but moving up in time
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Yes that's pretty important. You don't need a +PNA you just need a less negative one. The March 10-20 period is still in play My guess is models will continue to trend more favorably as the MJO gets into phase 8.
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Ridge out west + gulf low + big 50/50 under a decaying NAO. That's a recipe for a monster event if it played out as shown.
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This winter moreso than others my mind already goes to the worst solution. Based on winter trends alone I'd give an edge to the GFS however the ensembles paint a very different picture. March will definitely be below normal, which sucks, but if it's going to be chilly then at least give me a snow event or two. Nothing worse than a cold, dry or cold/rainy miserable March.
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Now if that cuts then I'm giving up on ever getting another snowstorm.
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GEFS with a much optimistic forecast than the OP. Signal is there but slightly delayed.
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Agree with Allsnow, great calls all winter and was one of the few that dismissed the "favorable" December pattern when even Forky was on board.
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Lack of consolidated block & 50/50. Heights are high and low where they need to be but it's strung out. That's a problem given how the Pacific side looks. If the Pacific were a little better then this could work. It'll be good enough for C/NNE with some front end frozen further south.
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I do think March 10-20 has the best potential to produce a significant snow event so far this winter. Better than December. I'll give it a 10% chance of producing a forum wide KU storm (10"+) a 25% chance of warning level snows (6-10") and 50% chance at another advisory event (2-5").
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Snowstorm? I got a little more than inch that's gone already. I think most saw an advisory event at best. Even the worst winters usually deliver something. Good news is this miserable winter is just about over
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This winter will find many ways to screw us. GFS led the charge in this Fridays cutter. I know I just think it's funny how this winter will find multiple ways to screw us
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Big cutter on the GFS
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The big storms happen when the NAO decays. The transition from - to + means there's likely going to be a storm somewhere The AO also follows and the PNA is trending upwards all while a high amplitude phase 8 is occurring. This doesn't guarantee a mid March KU by any means. We've seen how a seemingly favorable pattern in December failed to produce but chances are better than normal
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