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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Euro shows a suppressed storm atm which is fine this far out. No need to worry about the March storm yet until this one plays out though.
  2. SnoSki14
    Same here. We've had less than 0.5 for the year
  3. SnoSki14
    That looks more impressive/significant to me than the 28th threat. Mod/high risk of the 28th continuing to deamplify leading to lesser amounts. I've yet to see 6+ cycles of the GFS showing a storm over a week out this season like the early March event
  4. SnoSki14
    If it wasn't this winter I would be excited for that potential. That being said that's a strong signal this far out with a lot of favorable elements in place. GFS has been showing the threat for 6+ cycles. That's unheard of for over a week out.
  5. SnoSki14
    A dusting would be my biggest event this season
  6. SnoSki14
    Not looking too promising there. Euro weeklies get chilly 2nd week onward too.
  7. SnoSki14
    Don't worry you'll get 8 months of it.
  8. SnoSki14
    Temps underperforming today meanwhile it's 80 in DC.
  9. SnoSki14
    CMC cuts it too so I believe it. If there's a last hurrah it'll be in the March 5-20 period unless models trend favorably for the 28th. Ensembles show heights rising across the entire arctic & Alaska after March 5. West trough is still there but by then it has a lot less relevance.
  10. SnoSki14
    No worries a big cutter washes it all away a few days later.
  11. SnoSki14
    You need arctic air though otherwise you'll get rainy coastals
  12. SnoSki14
    Warm air is so close today but still hanging in the mid 40s
  13. SnoSki14
    I'd rather us just torch and be completely done with this god awful winter. The blocking will just make March/April miserable.
  14. SnoSki14
    Models showing the same garbage we've seen all season. No surprise there
  15. SnoSki14
    All it takes is for the 50/50 to be weaker than shown and it's a bust so I'm treading carefully. The thing is in this climate we can have record warm months and still somehow get a storm or two that gives us all our seasonal snows. Not saying that's likely but it also wouldn't shock me.
  16. SnoSki14
    Sometimes that's true. There was a 2010s March where everything was suppressed due to confluence. However for this one I think it's more likely to trend north over time. Gonna try hard not to jump off a cliff when it's 40F and rain down here while SNE gets a major snowstorm.
  17. SnoSki14
    Bias? The GFS was well north 2-3 cycles ago against the CMC & Euro. I still think this is mostly SNE storm but you're not being objective Additionally the strengthening confluence is real. Will it be enough down here? I lean no but the trend is legit.
  18. SnoSki14
    It's nice to see continued improvements but it's still very borderline this far south. Given the trends this season I'm not sure it'll be enough. Looks like an excellent late winter pattern for SNE north though.
  19. SnoSki14
    Time to move north
  20. SnoSki14
    I need to see some follow through with tonight's runs. Either they stay consistent or get better. If they get worse then I wouldn't expect much.
  21. SnoSki14
    What a weenie GFS run for SNE
  22. SnoSki14
    We seem to be stuck in no man's land. Probably a lot of days like today over the next month or so.
  23. SnoSki14
    Any reason why the GFS solution is being discounted. Seems equally likely to verify
  24. SnoSki14
    Very surprised the SNE folks are so gungho about next week. If the 50/50 is even slightly weaker or displaced then the threat falls apart. Anyone south of VT/NH/ME should be skeptical
  25. SnoSki14
    How does that logic work? Suppression now equals more suppressed storm down the line?
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