SnoSki14
-
Posts
15,428 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
Yes 01-02 set the standard for horrible winters that this one still beats as of Feb 27th.
-
GEFS look much warmer
-
Do you guys post Euro snow maps? Curious about NJ as it looks close
-
Yeah looking like a non event now south of 78. Oh well at least it's almost spring
-
I can't wait for this winter to die a fiery death along with the Nina
-
It's probably our only chance at anything. Models aren't enthusiastic about the 3/4 system. So yeah give me a couple inches and then this pathetic winter can shove it
-
Nam is garbage. It had widespread 1-2" totals for Saturday. I saw flurries.
-
I live like 5 minutes from there and I can't shake that feeling either
-
LR HRRR ramping things up nicely especially for the northern half of the forum.
-
GFS has been trending stronger with the confluence. Not sure it'll be enough but still a lot of time.
-
Sure but it has almost zero staying power. I personally hate late winter snows. Anything outside of a 1956 or 1888 or 2018 to some extent after March 10 is meh to me. But because I've had nothing this winter I'll settle for anything just once. Hopefully Monday night delivers
-
This one's pretty cut and dry. Stronger 50/50 equals storm (miller B transfer) while a weaker one equals cutter. The current trend is towards a weaker 50/50 Additionally given the amount of phasing likely you would need a very strong 50/50.
-
You can't ignore climo even with a favorable pattern. Our averages are climbing near 50 by then. Not many snowstorms after March 12 looking at history
-
Yes that's no good. If that continues then everyone will rain even into NNE The 3/4 is the last system I'm invested in. If that one cuts then I'm done with this winter. I don't care how favorable March 10-12+ looks with spring firmly in control.
-
You definitely want heavier rates with this given marginal temperatures. Rgem with a really nice thump. Very Euro like
-
That's during the day. Storm comes at night
-
How convenient that you suddenly praise the GFS after constantly trashing it
-
I think we'll thump for a few hours and go to sleet/light rain. But a degree will make all the difference. Wet bulb temperatures will be key
-
That's still possible because of very marginal temps.
-
Was 0.5" the record for least snowfall for the D-F timeframe?
-
It's as good as it can get imo. I'll sign up for that in a heartbeat
-
I think it's more probable the confluence will result in a miller B like solution. You can already see the 6z GFS try to attempt that. But it's too early to tell just yet
-
Still think my area in Somerset will be lucky to get an inch. Consensus has the best snows north of I-78 with general 3-6" totals and locally higher amounts. On the plus side low level cold has been overperforming as of late and this could be a rare positive bust for those slightly further south. Keep an eye on wet bulb temps and finally the fact that the storm comes at night helps too.
-
And Euro affirms that the GFS is an outlier atm. And like I said if the weaker confluence scenario is true then yes the GFS will be right but that's not a foregone conclusion. How's your Boston blizzard working out?
-
A system will rapidly deamplify and transfer to the coast under strong confluence. The setup with Greenland blocking and a 50/50 underneath suggests there will be some confluence in place. The question becomes how strong will it be. As of now the GFS solution is an outlier however if models trend towards a weaker 50/50 then a cutter will play out. In that case you'd wanna be west as even VT/NH would flip to rain. It's too early to tell exactly what will happen
