SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Twitter is where intelligence goes to die. All I see is the same ole Nina crap that we've had for a decade now. Atlantic blocking has to do all the heavy lifting yet again No help in the Pacific
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Well the warm weather should make you happy at least
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Nice drive through the snow squall. Was coming down pretty good. Temps dropped from 40 to 34
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First flurries of the season in Somerset
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Blocking is too weak and doesn't hold 50/50 in place Models are flip flopping a lot though
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LR looked pretty crappy again Arctic blocking too weak and pacific ridging breaks down.
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Agreed. By March you're quickly heading into spring/summer or at least it feels that way. Though more often than not the weather frequently reminds you it's still March.
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I didn't quite get that with that post. Usually the warm weather posts are much more overt. This one did mention the east coast trough at least and subsequent storm signal
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There's definitely a signal for something but tracking it well over a week out is a little silly.
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I think the T-Day system will be a tall order right now however Euro cutter causes a wave break that might help big time in early December.
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8 out of 10 times these things don't work out but odds are a little better this time. The Arctic blocking looks real. GEFS also agrees
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Well we may have blocking in December this year which should help as long as the Pacific isn't a complete dumpster fire like last year MJO going to 7 to end November and then slow down but there are some hints it could go to 8.
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I'm not getting my hopes up until this Nina crap finally goes away. Consider any snow a blessing
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First 20s shortly, already down to 30F
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Ensembles looking pretty decent for December. Notice -AO trending stronger everyday Could be a few mild days in there too. Agree with snowman that snowy pattern will have to wait until AO blocking materializes.
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Very favorable MJO progression from November to December No wonder arctic blocking is showing up on ensembles
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Likely happens for most tonight and definitely by the weekend for most urban/coastal regions
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Record -EPO favors cold/dry most likely but the brunt of the cold is to our west and some SE ridging will keep a gradient so some storminess wouldn't surprise me
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With high amplitude MJO expected to traverse phases 7-8 to start December and AO going negative odds are better than normal for a cold/snowy December Nina climo is also generally favorable for Dec as well.
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Pretty sure it is the warmest 1st two weeks of November or in the top 3 at least. Going from a +12 to +15 anomaly from November 1-12 to a -5 to -10 will be a major shock to many
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Hard pass. These anomalies are ridiculous. It's like +15 right now. AC was running this morning because it was like 72/68
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December 2015 style warmth
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Think there's some warmup end of November or early December before next chill down. Looks like a high amplitude MJO passage into 7 which should ignite Atlantic blocking
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Winter 2022-2023 Promises Plenty of Mid Season Mayhem
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
This is so much better than NOAA just using standard ENSO climo for their forecasts. -
GFS with an interesting system on the 18th. Interior snows wouldn't surprise me. Also with record -EPO and Greenland blocking trending stronger I wouldn't be surprised to see the low end up further south.
