SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Nice recent ensemble runs. They're really hitting the Arctic blocking strong. Looks like this week's cutter may initiate a wave break that forces a -NAO/AO. Still a little too east-based for my liking but not bad. Looks good for SNE & north though.
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It's a pattern that could break in any direction. Amount of SE ridging will be key here. We need to root for 2010 style blocking to overcome the ridging which is a tall order. This -PNA/NAO/AO pattern would work better in January with colder climo
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If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern
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Don't worry everyone at the New England forum says winter is coming
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It doesn't hurt to hedge your bets. Personally think it'll be a longer waiting period. I think January will be good for all.
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It's ideal hoodie weather which is my favorite. I wouldn't mind it staying in the 50s until there's a snowstorm
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Yeah the ops are Euro too. Do yourselves a favor and avoid looking at them for a while. Though on second glance you can see where the Euro is headed days 9-10
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Nice teleconnections today. Falling AO/NAO and even a PNA trying to rise to neutral? MJO also briefly curling into phase 8 as well. Looks like after Dec 5 is when things could get interesting.
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It comes down to whether we can avoid the extreme RNA pattern of last year + whether the strength of Atlantic blocking could suppress SE ridge enough to allow for snow events. GEFS going back and forth on strength of blocking. New runs look better
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That would be nice even down here. I just hope it holds
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That is a nice look if it holds. Some shades of 2010 in there
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In January that would work. It's tougher for us in December. That's better for New England
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GEFS pulled back some. Patience will be needed
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I'd rather see no snow at all than have to witness that. Crushing
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I'm used to a crappy decade of December snows so expectations are extremely low every year. The 2000s are a long memory now. But it's good to see areas to my north cash in early, build up some snow cover, get that colder air in. It doesn't hurt.
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You don't think there's a chance it trends stronger as we get closer to December? Maybe not Dec 2021 levels but still strong
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An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6.
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It'll be December by then. More than NNE should be getting snows
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Pattern looks like crap for snows outside of NNE. So far looking like a copy of 2021
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Looks like a repeat of last winter We need a major ENSO overhaul to get something different
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Looks like we'll get our mild late November to early December period after all.
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Probably too many competing influences I'm just gonna use ensembles only and no Ops beyond 3 days
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Model performance has been awful. You really can't take any solution seriously past 3 days.
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You need a good airmass in place ahead of the system for November snows to work out Also blocking is fairly weak and doesn't lock 50/50 low in
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Ingredients are there for a powerhouse system but any frozen will likely be reserved for NNE and high elevations
