Nice recent ensemble runs. They're really hitting the Arctic blocking strong. Looks like this week's cutter may initiate a wave break that forces a -NAO/AO.
Still a little too east-based for my liking but not bad. Looks good for SNE & north though.
It's a pattern that could break in any direction. Amount of SE ridging will be key here.
We need to root for 2010 style blocking to overcome the ridging which is a tall order.
This -PNA/NAO/AO pattern would work better in January with colder climo
Yeah the ops are
Euro too. Do yourselves a favor and avoid looking at them for a while.
Though on second glance you can see where the Euro is headed days 9-10
Nice teleconnections today. Falling AO/NAO and even a PNA trying to rise to neutral?
MJO also briefly curling into phase 8 as well.
Looks like after Dec 5 is when things could get interesting.
It comes down to whether we can avoid the extreme RNA pattern of last year + whether the strength of Atlantic blocking could suppress SE ridge enough to allow for snow events.
GEFS going back and forth on strength of blocking. New runs look better
I'm used to a crappy decade of December snows so expectations are extremely low every year. The 2000s are a long memory now.
But it's good to see areas to my north cash in early, build up some snow cover, get that colder air in. It doesn't hurt.
An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows.
The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6.