SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It's the Pacific that's giving the models problems. Arctic blocking hasn't changed that much on the models but the Pacific is all over the place. Hopefully that gets resolved soon
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Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists. I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good. If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December It could also be case of delayed not denied
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GFS ensembles too. Block so strong it forces PV west and then hooks up with SE ridge This would be a first. A very negative AO/NAO with positive to very positive temperature anomalies
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I'm honestly shocked what models are showing. I've never seen a blocking pattern like that. This is insane
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Models struggle to figure out the Pacific beyond a few days. The day to day changes on the models are drastic. I predict they'll shift back to favorable in the next day or two
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Yesterday it was guns blazing and today panic There's no reason to panic
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It's all trash after day 4 because they assume the trough dumps west and the PV shifts NW allowing SE ridge & developing block to connect Notable PNA rise over next 3 days following MJO passage into 8 will stop that from happening. Just you wait
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Garbage runs By tomorrow they'll look completely different
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GFS/GEFS after day 4 is laughably bad and inaccurate
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It will trend colder just you wait. Btw ignore the nonsense of the SE ridge and block linking up. Models do this because they dump the trough out west after day 4 however you can clearly see a trend of models building a ridge in the Rockies before that. The Rockies ridge trend will continue and press the Hudson PV further S&E. I think everything after Day 4 is garbage on this suite, ops & ensembles
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Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe. That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show.
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Typical model waffling. They'll trend more favorably by tomorrow
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It's a garbage run as are most of these op runs beyond 3-5 days
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The modeled pattern is about as favorable as you can get. I see zero suppression risks and multiple snow events, some big once the pattern settles in. Could easily be a 3-4 week snowy period imo.
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Had lots of subsidence in NJ for that one but still cleaned up well
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Now I'm curious was there any similar pattern that is currently depicted that didn't produce at least one significant snow event in the northeast. Let's say in the last 30 years
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I was just gonna say wasn't that the millennium storm. It was the first major snow event since the terrible late 90s winters
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The EPS is straight outta JBs basement. I think we have to start talking about multiple big storms in this pattern
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I can't think of any blocking pattern like that in the last 22 years that didn't produce anything Often times it's a waiting game though like 2010
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I think a good chunk of New England could get skunked actually at least for a time.
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Given the extent of blocking I could see a southern lean to the storms. NNE & even a bit further south may get angsty at times.
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That could trend colder. Normally they trend warmer but with a big block building it could go the opposite
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That Dec 5/6 system could trend more favorably with blocking already having an effect on it. Notable compression taking hold. Maybe it'll turn into a swfe.
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A rotten block in Dec/Jan is better than latter Feb/March. At least climo is still better. That being said the Pacific does actually improve over time so reloads are very possible
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I'm not worried about that when PNA is still negative to neutral and Nina forcing tends to keep heights low out west. This is a lot closer to 10-11 than 09-10 which was also a big Nino year.
