I'm not sure either the 12th or 16th will work out here. They are both embedded in the pattern transition phase.
12th doesn't have much room to amplify and the 16th has a primary that's way too far north to start.
It's likely after the 16th where we get our favorable pattern. Getting the 16th storm to work out would be a major bonus
Anything outside the 5 day period needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The model variations have been extreme this season