SnoSki14

The dry weather helps greatly. Its also been allowing temps to get quite chilly at night. Not too often we get huge diurnal swings in June

Outside of some very warm to hot days (still dry though) today and tomorrow it mainly looks at or below normal with 70s. We should still dip into the 40s at night quite easily.

A complete 180 from last winter would not surprise me. In this era we flip from one extreme to the next. Also am noticing cool SST anomalies building off the SE Canada & Atlantic coasts while MDR cooks. That supports the cool backdoor pattern for June expected to develop in the northeast.

Noticed there's some pretty cool SST anomalies off of SE Canada and Atlantic costs just north of Gulf stream. So the backdoor fronts have merit

One bad weekend out of many is fine and rain is needed. The cutoff placement will be interesting though. GFS much further SW with it

The agenda is pretty clear. He's all in on a super east-based Nino and is finding random Twitter threads to back that up. Notice how he doesn't actually counter the posts arguing against it. He even posted JBs pro Super Nino tweets on here when he despises JB & his forecasts. I'm not saying a strong to super east based Nino can't happen but the data Bluewave and other mets on here have posted do not point in that Super Nino direction. In fact right now it's more likely the Nino never fully couples than us getting a full blown Super Nino.

Why are you pulling up random twitter threads and who are these people? I'll trust Bluewave's analysis 10x more than whatever these people have to say.

That's the status quo nowadays. I imagine a strong ridge would get us to 100+ pretty easily given how dry its been

I don't see the ridging push east. We'll probably have to wait until the WAR gets into gear to get into the real dewy heat. Some showers/t-storms due to the cool/hot gradient seem probable

Still dropping into the 40s by morning and that could continue for a bit Nice trough on ensembles showing up for June too

Eastern trough on ensembles to start June. So any sustained heat/heat waves will have to wait.

There's no major heat indicators atm. Maybe near to slightly AN overall but definitely some cooler days mixed in too.

GFS & GEFS trending uglier.

Trending in the wrong direction though

If that low cuts off then it won't be great. Doesn't mean rain & cold everyday but definitely not summer like

Not on Euro

Another ugly holiday weekend?

Early glance at Memorial day weekend doesn't look great. Maybe some subtropical activity?

We'll get a good soaking and clearly the drier models were wrong at least in NJ

That alone should warrant caution

Big shifts east on mesos. Have almost zero rainfall over NJ

If the Nino forcing can't get going by mid-late summer and given very high Atlantic SSTs, then this hurricane season has the potential to really catch folks off guard.

The timing sucks but we really need the rain.

Models have cutoffs underneath the ridge which is displaced north.

38F this morning. Likely our last 30s until October. We start our summer pattern by Memorial day weekend