SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Eventually we may have to look at the worst case scenario warming outcomes if this year is any indication
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That's basically a given nowadays- 489 replies
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- flooding rains
- coastal flooding
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
A strong south'easter that pumps us into the 60s would mix some strong winds down. -
I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again. Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different. It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag.
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MJO in the circle and very weak overall. I think that bodes well for a back loaded Nino response if that maintains. I think raindancewx has the right idea which means things will be a lot better than last year.
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Nino pattern starts kicking in by early January. Seeing heights lower across this region as subtropical jet powers up. MJO does eventually make it to phase 8 too after Christmas. I think mid Jan to mid Feb could be decent. Pattern is a lot different than last year. It's similar to 2015 with a more muted December torch. I like 82-83 too.
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So much for a Christmas pattern change. Warmth always wins now
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The CONUS wide warmth on the Euro is insane. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it.
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We've seen this before in January and already crashed into the upper 40s an hour later.
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December 2015 really did seem like a tipping point. The temperature acceleration since then has been nothing short of extraordinary. Anyone still denying the warming trend is a complete imbecile.
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Euro says break out the shades and shorts
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No torch just somewhat above normal Greatest departures up north
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I wonder if we'll have another snowless winter
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Best part of these low snow seasons and warm spells is that JB comes off looking more and more like a baffoon to his climate change denial audience.
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So we might not see any more snow events if that's the case.
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Ensembles are very mild mid month. I expect 60s
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Pretty much though many would still like to see some wintry weather for the holidays.
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Maybe but there's a tendency to rush things and there's an MJO lag to take into consideration. We're actually kinda similar to 2015 but the blocking will prevent another Dec 2015 style warm anomaly. January could be good.
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Don't tell that to the New England forum
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Doesn't look that deep to me and we've had plenty of winter months with strong Atlantic blocking with meh conditions out west that still delivered. PNA reading is positive actually Block location isn't bad either. Last December the block was too far south for us.
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Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live. There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking. What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic than last winter if that helps.
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Thank god for blocking or it would be near 70 today
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Many posters in the New England forum say last Dec was just bad luck despite the huge block but there was more to it than that.
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We had a huge block and record -AO where we would've cashed in every time but didn't. We're getting blocking now and it's in the 50s today. These blocks are no longer paying dividends like they used to. The PV is also shrinking and it's allowing strong Atlantic blocking to get negated too if not merging with the SE ridge Posters like Raindance & Bluewave have been absolutely crushing it in their analysis over the past few years and I have no reason to doubt them.
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What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year. The -PDO is not encouraging Bluewave would definitely call you out on it.
