SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It wouldn't take much for the core of the heat to be shunted further south but as of now Thur-Sat will be the hottest of the season and possibly for the year.
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A coupled strong east or even central Nino wouldn't be good for winter prospects. An uncoupled response would work out better.
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Biggest of the season. A good 4-5 day stretch of 95+ with HI 100-110 range. I don't forsee 100+ readings though due to wetter pattern this month but it's not out of the question.
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Unless there's literally 0" inches it can't get any worse than last season I'm far more optimistic that the strong east based Nino combined with Nina like western forcing will deliver
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It's already weakening so unlikely. Timing isn't great
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
SnoSki14 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Literally every comment on Twitter after there's a post about record heat is that. Which is why it'll nearly be impossible for climate change to be addressed until it's too late. The complacency and levels of denial is insane. -
We should easily get a string of 95+ days next week if current trends hold. 100+ will be more difficult due to the rains this July vs last
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The forcing is heavily skewed west compared to strong Nino east based years thanks to Pacific warm pool If this Nino is strong and tilted east it still won't play out like 97-98 or other similar years. Bluewave broke that down nicely in the Nino discussion thread. So I don't think the typical caveats where a strong east based Nino means winter is dead will apply.
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There's some real heat potential to end the month but will it verify. GFS has a massive CONUS wide 594-600+ ridge that would result in widespread 95+ temps if not 100+ readings over a large chunk of the country including us. Combine that with high dews and it's a recipe for disaster
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We're basically near normal for the year and any semblance of drought has been wiped out. And with more rains to come we'll probably skew towards AN precip wise. This is a stark contrast to where we were this time last year
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That stuff east of DC could impact us later It's still really early in the day
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Last 2 days really delivered
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Getting blasted near New Brunswick right now
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This atmosphere is completely juiced. 2.3 PWATs and 77/75 right now. Nice swath of rain/tstorms just to my west incoming
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PWATs are off the charts today. Any breaks in the clouds will add even more fuel for later
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Solid rains over an inch today. Could prime the area if tomorrow's flooding materializes
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The rains have been mediocre outside of NW NJ so I'm not getting my hopes up. But at least it's better than last July
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Good downpour for sure but places just north are probably getting slammed. 2-3+ amounts wouldn't surprise me for them.
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Just missing it by 5 miles or so south
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There's gotta be a New Brunswick shield or something. Line is weak sauce around here while stronger everywhere else
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I remember when the climate change skeptics would use above normal Antarctic sea ice as a way to push back against the scientific consensus. What's their excuse now?
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Correct which is why it's premature to assume next winter will play out like a standard strong east based Nino Our typical ENSO configurations are losing their grip as CC effects get compounded year after year
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We'll avoid the 95+ heat for now
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
There's no eastern trough -
Models targeted NW areas that got slammed and weakened it quickly further east So they nailed it
