SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I forgot how awful 06/07 was
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I still think we're gonna beat 95/96 for snowfall before CC fully takes over. So sometime within the decade most likely
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Like I said we have next week, then likely torch followed by one more threat in late Feb to early March. Not sure how the rest of March will play out but hopefully it's mild and not a cold, blocky mess.
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It seems like all or nothing seasons nowadays. If the pattern is favorable next year then you'll see a lot of snow. So I wouldn't take that bet for next season because I think it'll be the opposite of this one
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Kinda seems like you're ignoring the big climate sized elephant in the room.
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The JBs of the world are already crafting a new narrative about that. Now it's underwater volcanoes causing the warming
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His forecast was pretty spot on actually but like you said for the wrong reasons. At least things can only go up from here next winter. So far it's in the top 3 for futility for me (lack of snow + warmth) If I don't get any snow this winter and given how warm Feb will turn it'll easily be #1 in futility.
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Incredible. Even a near normal January would feel frigid compared to this
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I don't see how we dodge next week. Models have snow south of us and the trend has been north all season
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Yeah pretty much.
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SNE is becoming more like NYC while we're becoming more like Virginia It does matter in the summer where our rainfall is primarily convective driven. Warmer waters means more instability, more vapor in the air, more tropical threats.
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Thus far if you include December there have been warmer Dec-Jan periods but we're getting up there. If Feb ends up as warm as weeklies suggest then the warmest winter (D-F) is in the cards.
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With SE ridge still around and strong arctic high to the north, things could turn really snowy in early Feb. Northern Mid-Atlantic could actually be favored this time.
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Going back 365 days we're still a few inches below normal actually. Also with warmer waters we will likely see more, not less rain moving forward. Summer 2022 was an anomaly imo
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Yeah early Feb could be good for us. Then we torch most of the month before one more favorable period late Feb to early March. 2 week winter
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Mountain regions there average 200" so I would think they'd get snow. But you know it's bad when you have to go to interior NNE in late January to find snow.
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There was a lot of talk about 95/96 & 10/11 back in early December and how great the pattern might be. NYC south has had a trace to no snow thus far. That's worse than even the ugliest winters and your region might be worse snow anomaly wise Additionally this will be the warmest January on record for many locations in the northeast. And the weather hasn't even been enjoyable either. Tons of clouds/rain this month...a prolonged mid March.
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We'll easily catch it. Another +8 week coming up. We should blow past it You frequently mention how this is like the 80s...wrong it's a lot worse. The 80s were cold, this is another beast.
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It did it with ease too. Just consistently well above average everyday which is the scary part. In the past even if there were a few record warm days, there would also be some cold to follow. Not anymore
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It should be a lock then. How are other locations doing
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You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked
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Unless these big troughs keep dumping west. That'll definitely make the SE ridge stronger and even your area wouldn't be spared like 12z Euro shows What a disaster this winter has become
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I think that's an exaggeration. Our last MECS was only 2 years ago. Eventually this will be the case but not yet. Sometimes you just get bad winters with bad patterns and that's it like the 80s or latter 90s. One thing we are seeing is much more extreme variations. If we do get zilch this winter I wouldn't be surprised if we get some crazy snowy winter next year.
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Overrunning or SWE will be the best bet. I agree if the period doesn't produce the odds of a literal snowless winter for NYC goes up significantly
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It's too early to say
