SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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They'll fall below freezing this weekend.
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I think the only time people are ok with wintry weather is during the holidays otherwise 90% of people would welcome another warm, snow-free winter. However there are negative side-effects of a warm winter primarily bugs & diseases and yes impacts to snow favored industries. Personally the older I get the more I'm ok with what we got last winter. No travel headaches, low heating bills, no icy conditions, don't have to shovel or deal with plows, etc.
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It's highly doubtful we see a blowtorch December like past strong Nino winters due to the Nina influence, which skews colder for December.
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We've already had several 20s in the suburbs, right now it's 29F. It really takes a lot to get the city down to freezing.
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The MJO response looks very muted though. It mostly hangs in the circle. Also not sure what the response of those phases in a Nino for Dec mean. It may not mean much given a mixed Nina/Nino response. It's going to be a nightmare for models that's for sure.
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No it's not bad but things could get pushed back again so I'm very weary of any long range outlook
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GFS has a massive cold bias
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I feel like those days are past us with the rapid warming we've been seeing. Even strong blocking doesn't do much anymore due to its unfavorable location. That and the shrinking polar vortex makes cold less likely. The 15/16 Nino was our tipping point
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Actually most (public) would be happy with another warm, snow-free winter.
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Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in. For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means.
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Euro has been caving hard. It might be warm one day and it's not very warm at all.
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Gfs op is a joke. The flipping is insane. Hard disagree. Very strong ensemble support that last week of November will be very cool. However I do think we warm up once December begins and there's ensemble support for that too.
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Euro does not agree
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On a lonely island by itself.
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Too much of a Nina influence this time
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If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar
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EPS has some cool air spilling east around Thanksgiving but for the most part it's cold west, mild east like the past 8+ years. The Nina background state looks permanent
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Lol it's 29 outside the urban jungle.
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Ensembles have a warm thanksgiving. Strong trough west, ridge east. Good -EPO but all the cold dumps west due to -PNA Meanwhile already down to 34F before 7PM
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The continued mixed Nino/Nina elements are concerning. Having a Nina background state while Nino tries to influence the pattern could be a major desconstructive problem.
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Same ole garbage. I guess we'll be seeing another 2" winter. Time to move out west.
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I saw lots of low to mid 20s in NJ. Got down to about 29F near New Brunswick. Tonight should be ideal for several degrees lower. The dry weather will also help.
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Suburbs should radiate nicely tomorrow night. I'm thinking widespread low to mid 20s.
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I think we'll see some 70s in the Nov 16-22 period
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Nice
