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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Yeah things are trending towards the Euro. It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter.
  2. SnoSki14
    Whatever we get, if anything, will be gone in a couple days or less anyway. Any snow will mostly be for show and to deter a record low snowfall season.
  3. SnoSki14
    Unfortunately we don't have a cold air mass ahead of this. That's a bigger problem than anything
  4. SnoSki14
    Like seeing an amped GFS & suppressed CMC for the 3/4. Final result could be somewhere in the middle
  5. SnoSki14
    I'd be careful with the Nam. It can often be overamped beyond 48hrs.
  6. SnoSki14
    6z Euro/EPS ticking in the other direction. Something has to give
  7. SnoSki14
    In the past I would've locked into the Euro but it ain't what it used to be. Though on second glance you can see the confluence trend stronger on the GFS/GEFS however we aren't seeing surface changes yet. If the Euro is correct then the GFS surface depiction should change substantially over the next 1-2 run.
  8. SnoSki14
    Is the GFS on crack then. It's very different for this storm and the 3/4 system.
  9. SnoSki14
    GFS being amped for the 28th & 3/4th system while the Euro is the opposite is unusual.
  10. SnoSki14
    I'm on a deamplifying train right now especially with the Euro/Ukie showing it but with this winter you never know. I know SNE is praying the GFS is right
  11. SnoSki14
    The Euro/EPS combo is pretty strong this close in
  12. SnoSki14
    Not out of the question with system deamplifying quickly as it moves east
  13. SnoSki14
    This winter is still a massive turd and remains the worst by a good margin but I agree that it's unlikely we set a new record for low snow totals.
  14. SnoSki14
    Also note the highly amplified MJO into phase 8 near March 8-10. Phase 8 in March isnt as cold as in other months but it still carries weight
  15. SnoSki14
    This is how I see the next month playing out Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold.
  16. SnoSki14
    Euro shows a suppressed storm atm which is fine this far out. No need to worry about the March storm yet until this one plays out though.
  17. SnoSki14
    Same here. We've had less than 0.5 for the year
  18. SnoSki14
    That looks more impressive/significant to me than the 28th threat. Mod/high risk of the 28th continuing to deamplify leading to lesser amounts. I've yet to see 6+ cycles of the GFS showing a storm over a week out this season like the early March event
  19. SnoSki14
    If it wasn't this winter I would be excited for that potential. That being said that's a strong signal this far out with a lot of favorable elements in place. GFS has been showing the threat for 6+ cycles. That's unheard of for over a week out.
  20. SnoSki14
    A dusting would be my biggest event this season
  21. SnoSki14
    Not looking too promising there. Euro weeklies get chilly 2nd week onward too.
  22. SnoSki14
    Don't worry you'll get 8 months of it.
  23. SnoSki14
    Temps underperforming today meanwhile it's 80 in DC.
  24. SnoSki14
    CMC cuts it too so I believe it. If there's a last hurrah it'll be in the March 5-20 period unless models trend favorably for the 28th. Ensembles show heights rising across the entire arctic & Alaska after March 5. West trough is still there but by then it has a lot less relevance.
  25. SnoSki14
    No worries a big cutter washes it all away a few days later.
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