SnoSki14

That does look nice if it were to verify. Someone on the NE forum mentioned a pattern similar to March 1960

Typical 18z GFS shenanigans or something more because that was a pretty substantial move aloft.

Yes but we're also in that weird transitional phase where it can be in the 40s to 50 during the day and in the 20s with snow the next. If there's cold air to tap into then it will snow and based on those charts there will be a lot of cold around. My problem is there won't be storms around that can tap into the cold. But yes climo matters especially after mid March. You need anomalous cold + favorable storm track to get a significant snow event by then. There's only a handful of storms in our history that managed that.

Ensemble runs are smoothed out so there's likely to be colder days mixed in. So I think there's enough cold around but I don't see favorable storm tracks with the widespread CONUS cold. You need gradients for storms. This screams cold/dry to me. I assume most don't just want a cold March.

Same here. Instead I think it'll be annoyingly chilly and dry. Luckily the sun is getting higher and higher but I see a lot of murky, colder days with possibly more below freezing mornings than most of Jan & Feb.

Strong MJO 7 passage and Nina forcing really enhances the WAR for the 3/4 system. The confluence due to the blocking tries to blunt it but it's not enough for most.

Prepare to be disappointed

In Jan no but in March yes. Alternatively some of the ops also suggest an omega high like pattern with a bulging ridge in the southern plains and cold coasts. You could get some clippers or SWFEs as the lows go around the ridge. Repeats of yesterday

Correct. Both the December storm and this Friday are partially a result of a shrunken PV It takes more things to go right for us to score.

You have to adjust the MJO to the March Nina to get a better idea. MJO begins to lose relevance by March as well

I'm not complaining about it. It is what it is, you can't change the weather. I got some snow last night so it's better than nothing. But bad winters usually don't change that much in character and there's something to be said about persistence & repetition. But I hope it works out for someone. I'm on the cold/dry March train.

That's what's happening with the Friday storm and we still lose. Persistence usually works out well. We got lucky last night like we got lucky in other bad years like 01/02 but overall persistence wins. After looking at the March weeklies I'm going with cold/dry (-2 departure) and under 3" of snow mostly from clipper like systems.

Suppression depression. The only game in town is Friday. If that's a flop, looking likely, then it's BN & dry.

The extent of BN anomalies is impressive however the coldest air remains west. This would be a good look for DJF when climo is favorable. By mid March averages are pushing 50. The cold will equal 40s for highs and barely below freezing lows. On sunny days we could still get to 50+

That's a rain event or shredder. It's also a Day 13+ op so it doesn't matter. March should be good for New England where climo is still favorable. Not much to get excited about elsewhere. Coldest anomalies are still west.

There are no threats on the horizon after Friday and BN in March means highs in the 40s, not exactly wild.

Well that was a fun couple hours. Doesn't change the F- winter Just want us to torch and be done with it already after today

What makes this time different?

That's likely going to be reserved for the I-80 north crowd. Probably a mix south of there.

Very scenic outside with the snow. Can't believe it took til almost March for us to see more than a light dusting

I think we just tripled our entire season total in the last 15 minutes

Yeah it's coming down nicely.

Not much south of I-78 either. Way too warm. I think I'll be lucky to see an inch. On the plus side I just matched my light grassy dusting for the season

BL is way too warm. Still 35F with the batch coming in

HRRR looks like crap. Barely an inch south of 78