SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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No it's not bad but things could get pushed back again so I'm very weary of any long range outlook
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GFS has a massive cold bias
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I feel like those days are past us with the rapid warming we've been seeing. Even strong blocking doesn't do much anymore due to its unfavorable location. That and the shrinking polar vortex makes cold less likely. The 15/16 Nino was our tipping point
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Actually most (public) would be happy with another warm, snow-free winter.
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Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in. For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means.
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Euro has been caving hard. It might be warm one day and it's not very warm at all.
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Gfs op is a joke. The flipping is insane. Hard disagree. Very strong ensemble support that last week of November will be very cool. However I do think we warm up once December begins and there's ensemble support for that too.
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Euro does not agree
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On a lonely island by itself.
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Too much of a Nina influence this time
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If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar
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EPS has some cool air spilling east around Thanksgiving but for the most part it's cold west, mild east like the past 8+ years. The Nina background state looks permanent
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Lol it's 29 outside the urban jungle.
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Ensembles have a warm thanksgiving. Strong trough west, ridge east. Good -EPO but all the cold dumps west due to -PNA Meanwhile already down to 34F before 7PM
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The continued mixed Nino/Nina elements are concerning. Having a Nina background state while Nino tries to influence the pattern could be a major desconstructive problem.
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Same ole garbage. I guess we'll be seeing another 2" winter. Time to move out west.
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I saw lots of low to mid 20s in NJ. Got down to about 29F near New Brunswick. Tonight should be ideal for several degrees lower. The dry weather will also help.
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Suburbs should radiate nicely tomorrow night. I'm thinking widespread low to mid 20s.
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I think we'll see some 70s in the Nov 16-22 period
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Nice
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Watch this be the winter pattern
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I mean it's 66F now. Probably will get to 68-69
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That's a Forky blowtorch pattern by mid month. Some 70s near Turkey day?
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More 70s on Tuesday. It's a warm Pacific jet pattern. Hopefully not a precursor to winter
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Looks like the same ole garbage we've seen with a rapid Nina Pacific jet.
