SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The most likely scenario is it gets caught up in the first trough and hits eastern Canada. That's where the ensembles and most op runs stand and that's what I'm going with.
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Disagree, the Euro as shown makes sense. Trough quickly swings through, doesn't pick up Lee and ridging rapidly rebuilds causing the storm to move NW It helps how slow Lee is moving. Other models show enough interaction with that first trough to swing it NNE.
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Very strong gusts with this storm. Hail core is just to my east
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Some very heavy rainfall possible with this tropical like air mass
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
SnoSki14 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Are you surprised given the endless barrage of conspiracy theories on socials -
Mid-late next week will feel cold despite near normal temperatures. And yes despite the record heat it still doesn't have the same punch as June through mid August due to those lower angles.
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The SSTs helped it rapidly intensify but it's never enough to overcome the shear which is clearly having an effect this morning.
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Not sure why you'd be rooting for a cane hit, it's not like a snowstorm. It would be fun for like 2hrs and then you'd have to worry about your house floating away and having to dodge massive trees & power lines. Give me that massive swell action and I'm good.
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Looks very wet/active over the next week even without potential PRE impacts from Lee
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This will be ticking west. Anyone counting this out now is nuts. I'm seeing stronger SE Canada ridging and a stronger Midwest trough. You only need a couple hundred miles of adjustments which is easily attainable well over a week out.
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Pretty big westward shift with latest GEFS
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It was only a matter of time before a major cane was integrated into the strong WAR/record SST pattern. Anyone thinking this will harmlessly recurve needs to reevaluate that strategy
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At the very least this one should be a swell producer for the ages. Looks like a monstrously huge system nearby
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This is going further west than that for sure. Big blocking high develops over SE Canada. The question is how far west it gets before it turns north as it'll likely head N or NNE beyond that. GFS ticked west too
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So much for a strong Nino suppressing activity. Wind shear levels look like a Nina out in the Atlantic
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110+ or bust
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I mean I would favor a Canadian hit but it wouldn't take much to shift it further west As of now the trough axis is too far east for impacts here
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Oh boy I see some strong SE Canadian ridging and the WAR making a move as Lee approaches. Way too early to say recurve
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I guess it would be exciting weather wise but the effects of a big time hurricane is not something you would want to deal with. It would be fun for a couple hours and then every tree would start snapping and falling down. Your house would be target practice
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The PV is not as cold, expansive and strong as it used to be either and there's plenty of data to back that up. And that is one of the reasons why we're seeing ridges phase together despite strong blocking while the shrinking PV lobe gets more and more pinched off. I think you're downplaying the effect global warming has had on the overall pattern. I'm with Don & Bluewave on this one Hell even Forky gets this right.
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The former is being illustrated by the CMC/GFS actually today.
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It's fitting in our AGW/CC world that the hottest weather of the summer doesn't actually occur in Met summer. If we hit 97-98 Wed/Thurs that will be the hottest of the year.
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That's an insane statistic. 2C of warming/cooling is the difference between today's climate and an ice age. The fact we shattered a previous heat record by .3C in just the past 7 years is crazy.
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I mean 95% of the time that's the right answer but once in a while it doesn't. Too far out to know for sure right now. Looks like a blocking high builds in as the storm is SW of Bermuda that could send it NW near the east coast. Isabel like track perhaps? Probably the only way this gets to the US as there's no big negative tilt Midwest/Ohio Valley trough that'll tug it west.
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It wouldn't be surprising to see the summer heat end in a nearby major cane strike.
