SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The clock is ticking even in SNE and models are all over the place.
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I doubt any of them work out to be honest. It feels like we're just chasing our own tail at this point.
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Same but I'll laugh if we pull this off.
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Given the Euro solution we can probably rule out a cutter.
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It sneaked into my forum
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The SE tracks have some merit due to the confluence up north. If this really digs then I could see a secondary transfer off the Delmarva with it skirting more ENE. That's what the GEFS show
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It's still a hugger. Need that primary to dig further south. Not a bad look right now though Additionally the more it digs due to a stronger Rockies ridge the stronger the secondary response will be. That's what we need in March to get big snows.
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2" would be my biggest storm of the season. I only got 1.5" with the last one. Current HRRR has 2-4" over the area. Clear meso banding showing up on some of the models. Maybe a surprise positive bust for some
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And that's what models are showing. It would be a dynamic coastal storm as some ensembles show.
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Looks like GFS/CMC both moved in a favorable direction Need that Rockies ridge to keep trending
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You need a dynamic storm + favorable track after March 10. It also helps if it falls at night if you want stickage but that's mostly for lighter rates. It is what it is
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Just read Don's analysis regarding how rare a mid March snowfall is especially after a historically low snow winter. The no snow option in mid March will win 95% of the time
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You really need ridges to spike behind the shortwave as they move east so they can dig and transfer. Others you just get deamplifying waves that give you light rain. It's easier to do now with shortening wavelengths but it's still a challenge. West coast trough is okay for March
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I'm very close to it and within range. We won't know where the band sets up until it starts.
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Here comes the Nam
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I completely agree. We're in nape season where it can be in the 50s or even 60s one day and snowing heavily the next.
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GFS caved significantly to the other models
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I need the mesos to come aboard for that one but it's possible the system is out of range for them.
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If the models swapped places you would say the same thing though.
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Sneaky clipper with a southern lean. Euro actually misses us to the south with it. Good overnight timing too
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Very, very unlikely to happen but the EPS gives us some hope. That's probably the best Day 7 EPS I've seen all season
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The Euro would be a historic storm for this region and one of the biggest March storms on record So yeah I'd say extremely unlikely though there is EPS support. Would need that to hold and for other models to come on board.
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I'll take that lol
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What a surprise
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It feels like forever since we had a classic BM track.
