SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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So much for the strong to severe Nino that Snowman can't stop talking about. We're clearly getting dual forcing here and yeah we're sort of lucking into a cooler 2nd half Sept pattern because everything else is blowtorching.
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It doesn't seem like we got a lot of rain because it was so stretched out but most places got 1.5-2+ so not too shabby. And there's more to come too
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Radar doesn't look so great for the region but showers could develop later.
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Euro trending more unsettled too especially later this week (Fri-Sat). Another rainy weekend perhaps? Very strong blocking high to our north continues so wouldn't be surprised to see a much more pessimistic forecast with continued strong onshore flow.
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Yes very latter October feel
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We'll get a good hit with the remnant low tomorrow, probably a lot more than today.
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We'll sort of be artificially cool despite a very warm pattern aloft because of how the highs are setting up. Tons of onshore flow, precip & clouds will keep highs several degrees below normal. But this is not a fall pattern. Lows aren't even sniffing 40s anywhere anytime soon.
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GFS is junk
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I think there's likely to be two rounds of rain with more steady stuff tomorrow and some convective potential with the remnants. Models are likely way too fast spinning this down. Sunday could easily overperform
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The system is very hybrid like. Although there is a tropical core the system is stretched out like a subtropical system with tons of energy well to the NE. That energy is what will give us the rain/wind impacts up here. Just look at the HRRR
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You're very annoying. It's going to rain tomorrow. There's massive feeder bands developing and will move north.
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Strong pressure gradient and storm is stronger than forecast. Should be a very windy Saturday
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The bar is very low indeed. Getting to double digits would be massive compared to last season. Hoping we get something like 15/16 with at least one biggie despite an overall warm winter.
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I think it'll be less impactful and more dreadful to deal with. Rainfall totals look benign and outside of immediate coastal impacts there shouldn't be too much to deal with wind wise. Think of it as an early fall coastal storm with very poor timing sadly
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That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that.
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There will likely be a tropical connection too so I agree on locally much higher amounts. I think we need another full day of model runs before we know exactly what will happen.
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Looks like Euro went in this direction too Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward.
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It should have some subtropical characteristics. The region off the SE coast is very warm.
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Euro hasn't been doing the best lately
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GFS moving in a wet direction for the weekend now. Some definite subtropical characteristics there. Overall pattern looks warm/wet with more muted highs and very high mins.
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That's likely a tropical/subtropical system. Other models are showing some homebrew development and all that moisture could head straight towards us. The tendency so far this season has been east with systems so I'm not buying the more west GFS right now.
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Notice he also has no counter to Bluewave's analysis regarding the supposed "Super" Nino and its refusal to couple.
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We're straying from the WAR coastal hugger/inland tracks this year I see. Could be a good sign for winter if the WAR isn't as strong
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Euro's Sandy forecast is still one of the greatest modeling performances I've ever seen.
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Pattern looks pretty ripe for some homebrew tropical development with onshore flow pattern and big sprawling high east of New England.
