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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    This 100%
  2. SnoSki14
    Just sucks we don't have a colder air mass in place.
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's good to see. It's a very frustrating forecast as minor changes make all the difference. It definitely feels like March 2001 in that regard.
  4. SnoSki14
    The northern stream comes in too late. You need it to happen while it's near the NC coast. Two things can fix that. Stronger SE Canada ridging or stronger ridging out west. Euro should be interesting. It was already closer to a hit than other models so it'll be interesting to see if it trends towards the GFS on that regard.
  5. SnoSki14
    Big jump in that direction but it gets going just a little too late for us. We need that northern stream to dive in quicker like the GFS shows
  6. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's really close to something historic
  7. SnoSki14
    GFS is nice even down to NYC. Shades of Feb 2013?
  8. SnoSki14
    It could still be trending as 6z trended better first. A stronger, more tucked solution is feasible and that would lead to something really good.
  9. SnoSki14
    A more amped solution wouldn't surprise me. GFS trending stronger with the SE Canada ridge which has been a staple over the past few years.
  10. SnoSki14
    GFS with an amped move there. Pretty big shift from run to run Our friend the SE Canada ridge is trending stronger which normally causes inland runners however in this instance could help us out.
  11. SnoSki14
    Nam is likely wrong but these tucked in solutions have had merit over the past few years. It wouldn't take much for models to shift to a more tucked in solution.
  12. SnoSki14
    Ridging out west remains the problem. A flatter ridge leads to a late capture a la March 2001. We'll need models to improve by tomorrow otherwise it's a dud for most.
  13. SnoSki14
    Not in mid March.
  14. SnoSki14
    You need this sucker to explode and tuck. Anything less and you won't see much. There's still time for models to trend in that direction. I would give it another 2 days.
  15. SnoSki14
    Well at least we'll know ahead of time Bring on the 60s & 70s
  16. SnoSki14
    I've been over this winter for a long time so whatever happens happens. We're very likely done after this threat minus a fluke storm in latter March or early April. There's reason to believe in a more tucked in, dynamic system. The seasonal trend over the past few years has been just that aided by very warm sst anomalies off the northeast coast.
  17. SnoSki14
    Thank goodness it'll be nice to move past this miserable winter and the dreaded Nina that caused it all.
  18. SnoSki14
    A later capture is more likely than an inland runner. Models being a little east gives us some wiggle room knowing things tend to trend west as we get closer.
  19. SnoSki14
    6z GFS clearly made a move towards it. You can see the changes aloft. We'll probably see more shifts on the 12z runs
  20. SnoSki14
    6z GFS made another move towards the Euro This is generally what you want to see for a coastal storm.
  21. SnoSki14
    Ok fair enough. What about the GFS though. It's much less amped which suggests a lack of consensus.
  22. SnoSki14
    Is there any reasoning behind this? I'm also skeptical given historic precedent but I can't deny what some models show right now.
  23. SnoSki14
    EPS is really impressive. It's what you want to see to get snows in mid March. Additionally if the storm is dynamic enough, which this is likely to be, then even a tucked in solution could yield snows as long as the storm is east of you. Also a rare longitude storm perhaps. I could see NYC and especially just N/W getting more snow than parts of SNE.
  24. SnoSki14
    Hopefully that's a trend as it would keep getting colder as we get closer. The track could tuck in a bit more and we could still end up colder.
  25. SnoSki14
    It's almost in Forky's sweet spot but will we have the cold to accommodate it. The snowfall maps don't look very promising I'm afraid
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