SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It depends on a lot of factors. Where is the block, where is the TPV? Is there a trough out west. Thursday's wave will easily cut. I think the next one will be further south but that could still mean mix/rain. Beyond the 20th if the +PNA happens then our odds at snowfall go up again with AO likely staying negative and a favorable MJO. That doesn't mean suppression can't happen though.
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10" would feel like a HECS today
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Same here. Not to mention Nina climo gets more favorable too late winter. A big snowstorm in the Feb 20 - March 10th period is very possible
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Nah they deserve it after getting shafted for a very long time.
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I'd be very surprised to see cutters, after Thursday with AO so low (lowest of season) and MJO phase 8. I think they'll deamplify and trend south.
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I think the one for next weekend will, not the one for Thursday. MJO still unfavorable and AO still falling. Not guaranteed of course
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1-3" for most still looks probable. Also have to account for higher ratios which are likely. 2nd wave could see some frozen at the onset. Right now models are amped for next weekend's storm but the AO will be near its seasonal lows. MJO will also be in phase 8 too. Last time that happened the Mid-Atlantic got our snows so I wouldn't be surprised to see that storm gradually shift south.
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SWFE style north bumps would do wonders with this. Also ratios should be better than normal.
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Classic screw zone for us. SNE got yesterday, although many underperformed, and Mid-Atlantic gets Tuesday. However given the trends north with yesterday's system I'd say there's still a shot things trend in that direction with this.
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Ensembles being this off would be something
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This is a blue balls winter so far.
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It's going to snow. Ensembles continue to hit us. GFS OP just had another weenie run. It's a matter of which system gets us. I think our moods would shift if we could get a nice 2-4" event tonight
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Hopefully HRRR is correct with its wall of snow depiction. That would easily drop a few inches (2-4") in 2-3 hours before any changeover.
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My SNE snow pattern and us only getting 2-4" by the 20th is looking really good right now.
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People want results instead of pretty Day 10+ maps. You can scream epic or amazing pattern all you want but unless something happens it's just fantasy. Our amazing January pattern gave us almost nothing
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Pattern looks quite favorable rest of February and probably into March. In fact it gets more favorable as the days drag on. Not everything will be a hit but there will be many opportunities
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Now if we could only get some results
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Weenie happy hour GFS run
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If next week works out then idc if it rains on Saturday
