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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    There's more to it than strong Nino equals no hurricane season especially with the very odd evolution of this Nino. Things are changing in the new CC era. Old rules no longer apply
  2. SnoSki14
    EPS has a stout western north American ridge and troughing closer to us which should trend stronger
  3. SnoSki14
    Any reasoning for the cooler anomalies off the northeast US & SE Canada coasts?
  4. SnoSki14
    Weather looks good after tomorrow. Weekend looks great. I don't see any major heat for now. Temperatures will probably stay close to seasonable levels averaged out. 3rd week of May could be cooler though.
  5. SnoSki14
    Models want to hang onto the omega blocking longer today. Probably closer to seasonal vs torch
  6. SnoSki14
    Could be a back and forth type deal too. Either way it should be a lot warmer. We're getting closer to that solar max after all.
  7. SnoSki14
    It takes a lot for us to see a cool month. We'd need the omega block or any extreme block to last most of the month. We've also seen a big swing where the west is cool & we're very warm since 2015. Parts of CA have seen top 5 record cold months.
  8. SnoSki14
    That's not that unusual. They can get snow well into May
  9. SnoSki14
    Don't doubt a warmup but with elevated heights from lingering block over western Canada, I could see a cooler trend develop as we get closer.
  10. SnoSki14
    Intensifying low coming up the coast so precip will fill in quickly. Subtropical look with bands that'll come from the southeast as low pulls up.
  11. SnoSki14
    HRRR really slams parts of C/N NJ over next few hrs. 2"+ amounts on top of what's already fallen
  12. SnoSki14
    I was gonna say this has a tropical feel to it. The surface low is really impressive down south too
  13. SnoSki14
    Ok this will deliver for everyone. Nice pocket of rain now and we still have the strong pocket associated with the surface low
  14. SnoSki14
    Why do you assume it'll be an east based Nino? Warming typically starts east and propagates westward. Monthlies show this happening by the fall. Strong eastern warming can collapse very quickly.
  15. SnoSki14
    Models sort of all over the place with rain amounts today. I do wonder if we'll be dry slotted with low going right over us with heavy rains west & east of us. Very chilly first few days of May. GFS has highs in the 40s on Wednesday with graupel likely
  16. SnoSki14
    The flowers have been out for a couple weeks already Very early leafout & bloom this year
  17. SnoSki14
    We need this during hurricane season A few more inches and our yearly deficits will be gone.
  18. SnoSki14
    I love it and the prolonged wet weather is much needed without the flooding risks.
  19. SnoSki14
    Yeah if we were having sustained 90s throughout April then that would be an extreme problem. The weather has been perfectly fine and mostly seasonable. We'll even avoid those chilly late April to early May rainy 40s to low 50s type days.
  20. SnoSki14
    You get different outcomes by late April/May. Closed low with blocking to the NE will cause a lot of rain. Fully anticipate models to ramp up totals Big signal from EPS
  21. SnoSki14
    I wonder what that means for late week into the weekend.
  22. SnoSki14
    Nice rain event. Hopefully GFS is right with the rains next 7-10 days as we're running a bit of a deficit this year.
  23. SnoSki14
    But it is theoretically possible then. This April is averaging 59 and we've had Mays average below 60. We would need a May 2005 though which is highly unlikely
  24. SnoSki14
    Looks like weeklies/monthlies actually shows a BN May after a record warm April. Has May ever had a lower average temperature than April?
  25. SnoSki14
    There's no indication of a super nino. I doubt it goes beyond moderate
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